"SEC dominance"

If there was one play that epitomized Florida’s unexpected 41-14 thrashing of Ohio State Monday night in the BCS national championship game, it came late in the first quarter when the Gators’ Derrick Harvey sacked OSU quarterback Troy Smith.

It might not have been the most important play of the game. It didn’t cause a turnover. No, nothing like that. But the play exposed the main reason why Florida was able to run circles around the Buckeyes all night.

The Gators were way faster than the Buckeyes.

Florida’s defensive ends chased down Smith all night, something no lineman in the Big Ten has ever done. Whenever Smith attempted to scramble, they were right on top of him, not allowing him even a second to look upfield.

And even if he had gotten that look, the sight wouldn’t have been pretty. Florida’s quick secondary was all over the Buckeyes’ wide receivers.

Ohio State definitely missed Ted Ginn Jr., its speedster. Ginn Jr. was probably Ohio State’s lone offensive player who could outrun some of the Gator defenders, as he showed by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown. When he injured his ankle on Ohio State’s first offensive possession, the Buckeyes were in trouble. They would mount just one scoring drive the rest of the night.

Florida’s speed was evident on the other side of the ball as well. The Gators ran several quick screens to freshman Percy Harvin, who darted between defenders for positive gain after positive gain. Harvin finished with nine receptions for 60 yards and five rushes for 22 yards.

And the Buckeyes’ defense was unable to get their hands on Florida QB Chris Leak all night. He’d either get rid of the ball right away or sidestep the rush before finding an open man downfield. Ohio State’s five tackles behind the line of scrimmage cost Florida a mere 13 yards.

What had to be blatantly frustrating to the Buckeyes and fans of the Big Ten by the middle of the third quarter was that not only were the Gators faster, they were just as strong and physical as Ohio State as well.

The Buckeyes tried to play hard-nosed football, running it up the middle. While this was more successful than throwing it, they still didn’t run for 100 yards. Antonio Pittman finished with 62. Florida, on the other hand, pounded the Buckeyes, rushing for 156 yards on 43 carries. Whenever backup quarterback Tim Tebow checked into the game, you knew what was coming: a bullying blast up the middle. Yet that didn’t stop the freshman from gaining 39 yards on 10 carries and rushing for a touchdown.

Florida’s whipping of OSU was a statement game for the SEC. It proved that right now at least the SEC’s best is much better than the Big Ten’s best. It showed just how important speed is in today’s game. Florida did a great job of spreading out the OSU defense and making use of its speedsters.

OSU couldn’t keep up.

Lack of speed is a fundamental concern the Big Ten’s top schools should start addressing in recruiting. It was just as evident in Michigan’s 32-18 loss to USC a week ago. The Trojans were quicker than the Wolverines on both sides of the ball, burning their defensive backs for long touchdowns and eating up quarterback Chad Henne to the tune of six sacks.

Maybe Bo Schembechler’s death in November was an omen: Run-first offenses are not just no longer in vogue; they also can’t win the big games. If teams want to compete for a national title, they need speed on both sides of the ball. They need to use a variety of spread formations on offense to utilize their speed and keep the defense off guard. And they need to find quick, slippery defensive linemen who can not only get to the quarterback, but also corral him once they’ve arrived.

That was Florida’s formula. And it worked flawlessly.

"Are you kidding me?"

As a Michigan football fan, I was frustrated several times yesterday as I watched USC trounce the Wolverines 32-18 in the Rose Bowl.

I yelled at the TV every time Michigan predictably ran the ball on first down. I threw Cheetos in the air on every third down USC converted because the Wolverines refused to blitz. I almost choked on a pretzel when Steve Breaston slipped on a crucial fourth down late in the game.

But nothing - not a single thing - drew my ire more than when head coach Lloyd Carr sent out his punt team with just over five minutes remaining and his team trailing by 21 points. He quit on his team, plain and simple. By taking his offense off the field, Carr was telling them, "You're done, I don't believe in you."

Sure, the chance of Michigan coming back was one-in-a-million, but what in the world did the Wolverines have to lose? Who cares if USC takes over at the Michigan 30-yard line and scores another TD? What is the difference between a 14-point loss and 21-point loss?

There was no way Carr should have punted in that situation (4th-and-10 at the Michigan 31). Go for it. Tell your kids there's still a chance. Crazier things have happened and will happen. Just a week ago Texas Tech pulled off the biggest comeback in a bowl, recovering from a 38-7 second-half deficit to Minnesota. Granted, Minnesota and USC aren't comparable opponents, but coaches certainly know that a game's never over.

Carr raised the white flag. But he wasn't done.

After USC recovered Michigan's onside kick with just under a minute remaining, Carr could have used the Wolverines' three timeouts to try to get the ball back and maybe score again. Instead, he was ready for the showers. Maybe he had a dinner date.

Or maybe - and hopefully, because this is a little better excuse - he wanted to get in front of a TV and watch the Boise State-Oklahoma matchup in the Fiesta Bowl, because he sure could have learned a lot from the Broncos, who were huge underdogs but won thanks to gutsy, unpredictable play-calling.

Carr giving up on his players was just a part of possibly the worst three hours of coaching in his otherwise illustrious coaching career. Games are won by the players on the field. You won't find many people who disagree with that. But coaches certainly can increase or decrease their team's chance of success.

On Monday the Michigan coaching staff killed the Wolverines.

To start with, their game plan was as predictable as the daily forecast in Seattle for rain. Michigan's plays consisted of running Mike Hart to the weak side of the field (which didn't make much sense, since the sideline limited him) or having Chad Henne drop back five or seven steps to throw either an out or a crossing pattern. There were no tosses to Hart to the strong side. There was no misdirection (which definitely could have worked, considering how USC was overpursuing). And there was no trickeration.

Again, hopefully Carr watched Boise State's offense, because the hook-and-ladder the Broncos ran and the two-point conversion to win the game 43-42 in overtime (a fake pass to the right and then a draw to the left) were incredible play calls. Risky, yes. But superb when executed flawlessly.

Men on sports talk radio today were mentioning how their non-football-fan wives could predict Michigan's plays. Not a good sign there, Lloyd.

So the original offensive game plan stunk. But there must have been adjustments made, right? Well, not really. In the third quarter, as USC began to pile up the points, the Wolverines stuck to their run-to-open-up-the-pass strategy with a stubbornness that only ill-minded politicians are supposed to possess.

It wasn't until the fourth quarter, with Michigan facing a double-digit deficit, that it finally abandoned the run (for the most part). The Wolverines then scored to cut their deficit to 19-11. And despite a USC score, Michigan was marching again, before Breaston slipped, USC scored again…

And Carr decided to call it a day.

USC coach Pete Carroll is the antithesis of Lloyd Carr. While you need to threaten Carr to make him change his game plan, Carroll simply reacts to what is happening, making the necessary adjustments to give his team the best chance to win. USC couldn't run the ball in the first half (which ended in a 3-3 tie) so Carroll ditched it in the second half. USC threw the ball on 27 of its first 29 plays, and the two runs were QB sneaks to pick up first downs. Carroll and company noticed that Morgan Trent couldn't guard Dwayne Jarrett in man coverage, so they had John David Booty - whom Michigan made look spectacular - throw to Jarrett all day to the tune of 11 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Carroll was still passing late into the fourth quarter, when only nitwits like me thought a comeback was remotely possible.

He was doing what worked. Can't blame him.

While there was no clear offensive strategy that worked for Michigan on Monday, it certainly wasn't running Hart or having Henne sit in the pocket. Hart rushed 17 times for 47 yards (a paltry 2.8 yards per carry). Henne was sacked six times (brining back ill memories of the 2004 Rose Bowl, against these same Trojans, when John Navarre was sacked nine times). Michigan should have realized that giving the ball to Hart in running situations was not working. It should have instead used quick passes on early downs to set up the run.

Never really happened.

And what about that vaunted Michigan defense? If UCLA, which finished the season 7-6, held USC to nine points, surely Michigan could provide a similar effort. Instead, the second half became the Booty-to-Jarrett show. While that combo was great, the Michigan D has to take some of the credit for making them look like Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. The defense was as predictable as the offense. There were hardly any second-half blitzes, and even when they did blitz, they were too late. Delayed blitzes are not going to work when the quarterback is getting rid of the ball very quickly.

While Trent got exposed, he can't be blamed that much for getting manhandled by USC's receivers. He was often left on an island, and even when the safeties did come to help, they were usually too late (like on Jarrett's back-breaking 62-yard touchdown catch that made the score 25-11).

Booty finished the game with a clean jersey. Obviously this wasn't the same Michigan defense that injured two Penn State quarterbacks in one game.

But it could have been much better with better schemes. Pressure Booty. Knock him down. Get hands in his face. None of this happened, especially in the second half.

So now Michigan has not only lost three straight to Ohio State, but four straight bowl games. The "great" season Michigan had going has been spoiled by back-to-back losses. The leftovers are only "good." The "Fire Lloyd Carr" websites will definitely resurface, and I can't blame those who take that route.

Those, including myself, who spit on the BCS and the coaches poll after Florida jumped Michigan to No. 2 in early December now have nothing to say. Michigan didn't look like a top five team on Monday.

Something has to change. Carr won't be fired. He'll likely be in Ann Arbor, like Joe Paterno at Penn State, until he chooses to step down. So he needs to make changes. Michigan's current system is good enough to beat the Wisconsins and Penn States of the Big Ten. It's good enough to challenge Ohio State (but not beat it), and it's not close to good enough to win a bowl game against an elite opponent, who is much better prepared to take the field.

I know Michigan is very resistant to change. It will always be a run-to-set-up-the-pass team. And that's fine, if 11-2 seasons are what Carr & Co. are after. But judging by Carr's very, very disappointed reaction after the game, 11-2 is not acceptable at Michigan.

Carr's hands are the dirtiest. He deserves the most blame for the 0-2 finish to the season.

And if Michigan is going to contend for the national title next year - which it is expected to do - it will start with Carr always believing in his players and never giving up on them in a game until the clock reads 0:00.

In other words, doing whatever it takes to win.

"Oh, those tricky coaches"

Hmmm.... just read over the final college football Coaches' Poll that is released to the public. Interesting, insightful, inquisitive.

All those "I" words and a downright travesty.

The Harris Interactive poll has to be rated the worst prong of the horrid BCS - four voters voted Michigan No. 4!! - but the Coaches' Poll is right up there, reveling in BCS ignominy. When it came to picking No. 2 in the final, everything-is-on-the-line poll, I can guarentee you that most of the 61 coaches who voted made their picks based not on who they considered "better" (I know, it's a confusing word), but on "other things."

Such as what conference their team plays in...

Every SEC coach voted for... drumroll... the Gators. Every Big Ten coach voted for... another drumroll... the Wolverines. Except Jim Tressel (who, so diplomatically, refused to vote) and Illinois' Ron Zook, who just happened to be Florida's coach a few years back.

Hmmm....

Such as if they played Florida or Michigan during the season...

Every coach of a team that lost to Michigan who voted... chose the Wolverines. Even Ball State coach, Brady Hoke, whose team lost just 34-26 at the Big House backed the Wolverines (maybe to help him schedule another big-money game at Michigan in the future).

Notre Dame's Charlie Weis even went as far to say that he chose Michigan No. 2 to “show respect to the team that beat us.”

Hmmm...

Such as if your team is south of the Mason-Dixon Line, you're probably not voting against Florida. Only three southern coaches voted Michigan No. 2: Troy's Larry Blakeney, Texas' Mack Brown and South Florida's George O'Leary.

Now, let's examine these anamolies. We know that Brown's Texas team played Michigan in the Rose Bowl two years ago, escaping with a one-point win after Lloyd Carr refused to use his timeouts (obviously, Brown owed Carr a favor). But to be more serious, Brown's teams have played against the Big Ten three times in the last three seasons, beating Michigan and Ohio State and losing to the Buckeyes this year, and he realizes how good the league is.

The motive for Blakeney and O'Leary to pick Michigan No. 2 is more difficult to understand. Both coaches have always worked in the South. O'Leary's team even played Florida this season, losing 42-0. Maybe these guys are actually coaches who voted based on who they thought was "better" (that word, again).

But those are just two coaches.

Hmmm...

Such as your team played a non-conference game against the Big Ten or SEC this season. Washington State lost to Auburn, 40-14, in the first game of the season - and Auburn went on to give Florida its lone loss - so, obviously, without giving second thought, WSU coach Bill Doba gave the Gators the nod. The University of Colorado, another (somewhat) northern team, fell to SEC foe Georgia, so, naturally, coach Dan Hawkins went with the Gators. To be balanced, I must point out that the University of Connecticut defeated Indiana, which lost to Michigan... and UC coach Randy Edsall took Michigan No. 2.

I'm not going to bombard you with any more statistical analysis. The patterns are not difficult to identify. Forget filling out March Madness brackets, next year how about filling out final Coaches' Poll brackets! I bet it'd be easy to 90 percent right when attempting to identify each coach's top two or three (depending on how many teams the almost inevitable BCS controversy involves).

The Coaches' Poll has become a joke. There's no denying this. And to think that the computer polls used to get most of the public's anger.

I won't even get into the blasphemy that is the Harris poll. All I needed was one example to prove its voters' incompetence. According to the "New York Times," George Lapides, a Memphis sports radio talk host, said he thought Florida would lose to Michigan if the Wolverines and Gators faced off, but that didn't stop him from moving the Gators from No. 4 to No. 2 after Florida's SEC title game victory over Arkansas.

“I liked the idea of a conference champion playing a conference champion,” Lapides told the New York Times. “I think that’s more appealing than a rematch. I think you try to pick something as appealing as possible.”

Right. So the BCS has come down to this. Coaches voting for their conference reps, other coaches voting for the team that beat them in September, and clueless voters basing their choice on what matchup is "appealing."

Yeah, it's needless to say this system needs to be scrapped.

ASAP.

"How Michigan can overcome the BCS"

Memo to the University of Michigan athletic department:
Do you want your football team to play in the national title game? Do you want to avoid getting screwed by the BCS, particularly human voters? Do you want your football team to get what it deserves?

Well, here's an idea.

Don't end your season before Thanksgiving. Don't play Notre Dame in September. Instead, take on the Fighting Irish on the final weekend of the season. They weren't playing - what else are they going to do? Study? PUH-lease. This is the big-money business of college football.

Don't start your schedule in the first week of September. Games in September mean about as much as a broken hairdryer does to a teenage girl.

No one cares that Michigan beat Notre Dame on Sept. 16. Likewise, no one gives a hoot that the Wolverines took down Wisconsin, now the No. 7 team in the BCS, the following week. All that is in the past.

All that mattered to those men who vote in the Coaches' Poll was that Florida beat Arkansas in the SEC title game and, of course, that Michigan "had their shot."

But would people have been saying this had the Wolverines played this weekend, maybe defeated the Fighting Irish? No way.

Who cares about tradition? Who cares about playing Ohio State in the last game of the season? Michigan needs to extend its schedule - period.

How about this: Michigan plays Hawaii on Thanksgiving weekend - like Purdue did this year - and then the Fighting Irish on the final weekend. I think that'd be enough to get the Wolverines into the title game. Skip the first week of the season, start their schedule on the second weekend and take a bye sometime in October (like Florida did this season - their bye came after their lone loss to Auburn).

And play all the way into December. I don't care if it's snowing in South Bend or Ann Arbor. That's what football's all about, right?

Michigan ended its season so long ago that I bet several of the voters forgot just how dominant the Wolverines were. For instance, voters likely looked at Michigan's 17-10 win at Penn State in October and thought, "That doesn't seem that impressive, defeating a team that finished 8-4 by just a touchdown." They would have failed to see, of course, that the Michigan defense knocked two Penn State quarterbacks out of the game and that the Nittany Lions didn't score their touchdown until 3:18 remained in the contest.

And you have to give the voters a break. That was October, after all. Several voters already have Christmas trees. The only Michigan game fresh in voters' minds is the Wolverines' lone loss - 42-39 at Ohio State on Nov. 18 (and maybe their 34-26 so-unimpressive win over Ball State on Nov. 4, although, of course, they don't remember that after taking a 31-12 lead, coach Lloyd Carr inserted second- and third-string defensive players).

The game most voters were undoubtedly thinking about Sunday when they inked their votes was Florida's 38-28 win over Arkansas because it happened a day earlier. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to know this. They saw the Gators upend the Razorbacks and thought to themselves, "Wow, this is a good football team. How can we possibly keep them out of the title game?"

Florida was the Christmas Day prime rib while Michigan was the leftover turkey from Thanksgiving.

So, University of Michigan athletic department members, if you truly care about your football team, if you care about them not getting hoed by the BCS (just like the coaches did to them in 1998, giving Nebraska a share of the national title), then you need to be proactive.

Mess with tradition, change your schedule. Yes, it has come to this.

"Gator Nation"

What has changed in the past two weeks. No, check that, what has changed in the past week?

A week ago the situation was simple: Either USC wins and faces Ohio State in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 8; or USC somehow loses to UCLA and Michigan faces the Buckeyes in a rematch of their Nov. 18 epic.

Not anymore. Suddenly, after Florida's not-so-impressive 38-28 win over Arkansas in the SEC title game - combined, of course, with UCLA's 13-9 shocker over the Trojans -the Gators have as good a chance as Michigan to play the Buckeyes.

A week ago close to no one said the Gators had a chance. Some media members said they had a "slim chance." Not anymore. BCS experts are picking the Gators to hop Michigan in the computer polls, and they say that Florida does not have finish ahead of the Wolverines in the Harris Poll and Coaches' Poll - they just need to improve their standing.

I'm not disagreeing with any of these experts. I'm just trying to figure out how in the course of a week the Gators suddenly are right in the thick of things to get that spot in the title game.

Several columnists seem to have jumped on the Gators' bandwagon, making their case for a Florida-Ohio State title game (which is eerily similar to media members vouching for Nebraska to share a piece of the national title with Michigan in 1997-98 after their Orange Bowl victory). Maybe they're SEC sympathisers who can't stand the thought of the conference being on the wrong side of another BCS controversy - undefeated Auburn missed out on the title game two years ago. Or maybe they saw something in the SEC title game that convinced them the Gators deserve the shot.

But all that should matter is this: Which is the better team - Michigan or Florida?

That's what the BCS' job is, right? To pit No. 1 against No. 2. Not to pit two conference champions against each other. Not to pit teams from the top two conferences. Just No. 1 against No. 2.

And this year, more than others, it's difficult to pick No. 2. But if voters were with Michigan one week ago, there should be no reason for them to switch sides now. Florida beat a 10-3 Arkansas team got slaughtered by USC that lost to UCLA. Florida got a big break when an Arkansas punt returner fumbled on his own 5-yard line and the Gators recovered in the end zone.

It was not that impressive of a victory - not enough to change voters' minds.

Let's face it: Teams that play deeper into November and even into December have a huge advantage when it comes to influencing voters, columnists, pundits, etc. No one remembers Michigan's blowout victory on the road at South Bend. All they can say is that Notre Dame is grossly overrated, which may be the case - but that doesn't diminish how impressive the win was at the time. And, of course, no one remembers Florida's lone loss of the year to Auburn - a good SEC team, but not great.

All most people remember about Michigan is its last game of the season - the 42-39 loss to Ohio State. And when it comes to Florida, most people are thinking about what they saw last night - a win over a Top 10 team.

Advantage Florida.

As many columnists have pointed out, Florida played the tougher schedule, Florida beat more ranked opponents, yada, yada, yada.

That's all true.

But... is Florida the better team? If the Gators and Wolverines lined up right now, who would come out on top? That team should be playing in Glendale.

Forget everything else. Forget that Michigan didn't win its conference. Florida would have suffered the same fate if it was in the Big Ten. Forget that it'd be the dreaded word... a rematch. Forget all that.

None of it matters. If I was a voter, I'd look at both team's entire seasons - not just the past three weeks. I'd look at their wins, I'd look at their losses, then I'd ask myself the question: Who's better?

And by the slimmest of slim margins, I'd choose Michigan.

'Nuff said.

"Miracle at the Rose Bowl"

USC must think it's cursed in Pasadena. For the second time in a year, the Trojans fell to an underdog at the Rose Bowl, this time losing to UCLA 13-9 in the most improbable of upsets.

USC is now out of the national title picture. And Michigan is back in. The Wolverines will more than likely get that rematch against the Buckeyes in Glendale Jan. 8. Florida, which is currently beating Arkansas in the SEC title game, is the only other team with a chance. But it would take some serious shifting of votes for the Gators to jump the Wolverines in the BCS.

I just chatted with someone in Ann Arbor. They're honking horns in the streets. They know the implications of UCLA's huge upset.

No one - and I mean no one - outside of the UCLA locker room saw this one coming. The Bruins didn't even choose a starting QB until three days ago. The Bruins (7-5) suffered through a four-game losing streak earlier this year. The Bruins hadn't beaten the Trojans since 1998.

Unbelievable.

So much credit needs to go to the Bruins defense. USC was coming off a 44-point performance against Notre Dame. USC hadn't scored less than 20 points the entire season. And the Bruins shut out the Trojans for an entire half of football. Very impressive.

The Bruins took the big play away from the Trojans. While Dwayne Jarrett was spectacular last Saturday, he was very average this Saturday, catching four passes for 66 yards and no touchdowns.

Every time it looked like the Trojans were ready to break the Bruins defense, it didn't happen. In the third quarter, trailing 10-9, USC got the ball in UCLA territory after the Bruins' lone turnover in the contest - a mishandled backward pass. The momentum seemed to be swinging toward the Trojans.

But a penalty, then a sack, and all of a sudden the momentum was back in UCLA's hands. I was convinced USC would pull ahead, find a way to retake the lead. Even after a great interception by Eric McNeal gave UCLA the ball with 1:10 left I wasn't convinced. USC had all its timeouts. But after a great 63-yard punt by Aaron Perez, it was all but over.

And Michigan had new life, another shot at the Buckeyes.

If Michigan gets the nod in the BCS, there is going to be a lot of pressure on Lloyd Carr going into the title game. No U-M coach has ever lost two games in a season to OSU. OK, I know they've never played twice in a year. But, like it or not, wrong or right, if Michigan falls again to OSU, the chants to fire Carr will begin again.

Which, of course, would be absolutely ridiculous. But that's life in Ann Arbor.

Sometimes it's great, sometimes it's not.

And right now, well, let's just say it's on the "great" side of the scale.

Thanks, 100 percent, to the Bruins.

"Hail to the computers"

I was wrong.

I thought Michigan would fall in the BCS after its close 42-39 loss to Ohio State Saturday evening. Even though the Wolverines are clearly the second-best team in the land, I thought they'd fall at least one spot in the BCS. After all, one-third of the BCS is comprised of computer rankings that don't take into account what we all know: if Michigan played USC, it would probably win; if Michigan played Florida, it would probably win. You get the picture.

But, lo and behold, the computers might have saved the Wolverines. While Michigan is third in this week's coaches’ poll - which factors into the BCS formula, unlike the AP poll that has Michigan second - it remains second in the BCS, barely, over USC because the computers favor it. USC holds a slight edge over Michigan in the third component of the BCS, the Harris poll.

The top three play out like this: Ohio State 1.000; Michigan .9263; USC .9188. It isn't difficult to see that the Trojans are just a hair behind the Wolverines, and they will undoubtedly jump Michigan if they win against Notre Dame (fifth in the BCS) Saturday night.

But if the Trojans lose? Well, we could be set for a rematch come Jan. 8 of Saturday’s Thriller in Columbus.

There's no way Notre Dame will jump Michigan with a win over USC. I just can't see it happening. And Florida and Arkansas in the SEC are too far back. Nothing is for sure until things are announced on Dec. 3, but it looks like either USC (which also has to play UCLA on the road Dec. 2) or Michigan will be tangling with the Buckeyes.

I never thought I'd say this, but hail to the computers. They may not have brains; they may not have perspective; but, somehow, they know who the two best teams in football are.

At least for a week.

So, now, believe it or not, Michigan fans will be rooting for the Irish on Saturday. It won't be easy - they may even gag a few times - but, remember, it's for the good of the Wolverines.

A chance at a historic rematch.

Some fellow Michiganders are worried that if Michigan ends up in the championship game and wins, it won't be a legitimate championship. I can see where they're coming from, but at the same time, consider this: Whoever plays the Buckeyes will have one loss (sorry, Boise State). So if that team wins they will have an identical record to Ohio State.

And all of the other teams' losses aren't nearly as impressive as Michigan's. Not that anybody would ever call a loss "impressive."

Also, a rematch in the title game isn't foreign (although it has never happened during the 10-year BCS era). In 1996 Florida lost to Florida State in the regular season before coming back to wallop the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl and win the outright championship.

You can't take the Big Ten championship away from Ohio State. The Buckeyes earned their first outright title since 1984 and I'm sure they'll cherish it for years to come - regardless of the result of the Fiesta Bowl.

And you won't be able to take away the national title from whoever wins on Jan. 8. They will deserve it and they'll certainly cherish it for years to come.

Hopefully the coaches’ poll and Harris poll will follow the computers' lead, placing a deserving potential champion across from the Buckeyes.

"College football wrap-up"

What a Saturday in college football. As much as it pains me to punch the keys after a Michigan loss, there still is a lot that can happen in the next two weekends. Nothing is certain except that the Buckeyes are headed to Glendale. With that said, here's my BCS outlook.

I said it in my previous column: I think a Michigan-Ohio State rematch should happen on Jan. 8. This unlikely scenario would have been helped by a USC loss to Cal tonight, but the Trojans scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 23-9 win. The Trojans will be No. 2 in the BCS this week, heading into their matchup with Notre Dame next Saturday. And if USC gets by the Irish and then UCLA a week later, it'll be playing the Buckeyes. No questions there.

But what if Notre Dame wins Saturday? How can the BCS take the Irish over the Wolverines, who demolished them 47-21 back in September? Unlike in past seasons, Notre Dame's resume isn't that strong. Its biggest win was its opening-game victory over Georgia Tech on the road. It beat No. 19 Penn State a week later, but the Nittany Lions (8-4) are no longer ranked (and Michigan also defeated PSU). The Irish needed a late touchdown to sneak by a weak UCLA team (currently 6-5) and 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points to sneak by 4-8 Michigan State, which Michigan killed 31-13. Besides that, their wins have come over Purdue (8-4), Stanford (1-10), Navy (8-3), UNC (2-9), Air Force (4-6) and Army (3-8).

To summarize, out of the 10 teams Notre Dame has defeated, only five currently sport winning records. The cumulative record of Notre Dame's opponents is 51-59. Not exactly impressive.

While Michigan's schedule hasn't been stalwart, they weren't really threatened in any of their wins, which included the blowout in South Bend and a home win over now-No. 12 Wisconsin (11-1) which in just about any other year would be headed to a BCS bowl instead of the Citrus Bowl. The fact that just four of Michigan's wins came over teams that currently hold winning records is deceiving. Minnesota and Iowa are both 6-6 and Indiana is 5-7. The overall record of the 10 teams Michigan destroyed is 69-60.

OK, enough numbers. I think it's pretty obvious - even if the Irish defeat USC next week - that the Wolverines deserve the championship game over the Irish.

As far as Florida and Arkansas are concerned, anyone who has watched the two teams play and watched Michigan knows who's better. The Gators needed three blocked kicks to sneak past South Carolina (6-5) a week ago and they only have two quality wins, defeating Tennessee by a point and LSU by 13. A win over Georgia does not look as impressive as in other years because of the 7-4 Bulldogs' struggles. Florida's victory this weekend came over I-AA West Carolina, which is 2-9.

While Arkansas has put together a great season, not losing since it was pasted back in September by USC 50-14, its body of work is still not as impressive as Michigan's. I'll be higher on the Razorbacks if they can get by No. 9 LSU on Friday and then beat Florida in the SEC title game.

I'd be more inclined to put Arkansas against the Buckeyes than the Gators. But Arkansas over Michigan? Forget about it.

Anyway, for Michigan to make the trip to Glendale, here is what I think needs to happen:
- USC loses one of last two games (vs. Notre Dame; at UCLA)
- if Notre Dame wins Saturday, it is very close and not that impressive
- Arkansas loses to LSU on Friday
- Arkansas defeats Florida in the SEC championship game
OR
- Florida loses to Florida State on Saturday and Arkansas loses to LSU or Florida

I'll be rooting for this to happen, but as you can see, there are a lot of "ifs."

On another note, how can you not feel a little sorry for Wisconsin. Almost any year an 11-1 record will get a Big Ten team into a BCS bowl. But the Badgers find themselves in the Citrus Bowl, where they will face a team with at least two losses. True, the Badgers didn't have to play Ohio State. But, still, finishing with that record in the Big Ten is impressive. Even in a weaker-than-usual Big Ten.

Finally, Rutgers came down to earth Saturday, getting ripped apart by 6-5 Cincinnati (and its backup QB) 30-11. Now we won't have to worry about Rutgers fans complaining when their team is left out of the title game. If that Rutgers-Buckeyes matchup did occur, my prediction: 49-14 OSU.

That's enough college football for now. These next two weeks should be very interesting.

"Unlikely rematch should happen"

It's sad that it's not likely going to happen. Although the new BCS rankings haven't come out, it is very unlikely that Michigan will meet Ohio State again on Jan. 8 in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Buckeyes will probably face off against USC, Notre Dame, Florida or Arkansas instead. These are all good teams, but none of them is the No. 2 team in the country. Most experts won't debate this.

Michigan is No. 2. All you had to do was watch the Buckeyes' 42-39 victory Saturday evening to know this. Yesterday's contest reminded me of a thrilling game that was played last January. Yep, the USC-Texas national title game.

It was back and forth. Michigan took the early lead (as did Texas); the Buckeyes came back to snatch a two-possession advantage (as did USC); Michigan made a late charge (as did Texas); but then the Wolverines ran out of time (if only they had held on to just one timeout, they could have gotten the ball back at the end).

I bet if Michigan had five additional minutes it would have gotten the ball back and scored the go-ahead touchdown (just like Texas did).

This was a national title game. Simple as that. No Ohio State-USC matchup will live up to yesterday's barnburner. There were great plays on both sides as well as great coaching. Jim Tressel came out with an excellent game plan offensively, spreading out Michigan's suspect secondary with four- and five-wide-receiver sets. This resulted in a 28-14 halftime lead for the Buckeyes.

But Michigan's D didn't lie down, coming out in the second half and forcing an interception and recovering two botched snaps by the Buckeyes. If not for a long Antonio Pittman touchdown scamper in the third quarter and Shawn Crable's helmet-to-helmet hit on Troy Smith on a third down late in the fourth quarter - which resulted in an automatic first down and, a few plays later, the clinching touchdown - the Wolverines shut down the Buckeyes in the second half.

Defensive coordinator Ron English - whom Michigan MUST hold onto for years to come - made some adjustments at the half, as his boys got more pressure on Smith during the final 30 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Michigan offense was able to move the ball on almost every drive. Only a couple of missed opportunities stalled Michigan drives. In the first half Chad Henne overthrew a wide-open Mario Manningham, who was on an island by himself after deking the entire Buckeyes' secondary with one of his amazing double moves. Then in the second half the Wolverines called a deep pass on a third-and-one when Hart was having no trouble picking up yards.

Michigan was as good as the Buckeyes on Saturday - except for a few plays. Three of Ohio State's touchdowns were 39 yards or longer.

Yes, the Buckeyes exposed flaws in Michigan's stalwart defense, which entered the game leading the nation in rushing yards allowed. Yes, you have to give the Buckeyes credit for making the plays when they mattered most.

But this game was just as close as that USC-Texas matchup last Jan. 4. And this game should be played again. Because, like I said coming into yesterday's contest, I (and every other analyst or fan) wouldn't know what to expect on Jan. 8. Would the Buckeyes come back with the spread offense? How would Michigan adjust its defensive strategy? Given more than six weeks, the coaches on both staffs would undoubtedly come up with excellent game plans.

And on Jan. 8 we would get to experience this again. Another epic classic.

Something the Trojans, Fighting Irish, Gators or Razorbacks simply wouldn't be able to provide.

"The reason I'm hooked on UM football"

The last few days have been absolutely hectic for me. And it's got nothing to do with school, work, my family and friends or my health.

Well, maybe my mental health.

Chaos has overcome me because I have been frantically searching for a way to watch the UM-Ohio State game tomorrow from here in Sydney (game time will be 7:30 a.m. Sunday morning).

I realized around Wednesday afternoon - while I was at my work desk, not doing work - that no bars show college football here. None. So my search became relegated to the Internet.

Finally, yesterday I bought a service that allows you to watch American TV on your computer, only to find out that ABC wasn't one of the channels. I could watch Fox News no problem (yeah, right), but when it came to ABC - one of America's most-watched stations - I was flat out of luck.

To finish off this short anecdote and get to the real point of this column, the website is going to post a way to watch ABC, so I should - emphasis on should - be able to watch The Game.

But I'm still holding my breath.

Unfortunately, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach from 1969-1989, has no breaths remaining. Schembechler collapsed suddenly Friday morning after taping a television show (a preview of the game) and died of terminal heart failure.

It was an evil fate for the 77-year-old who, I'm sure, would have died happily had he stayed alive 36 more hours and witnessed a Michigan victory.

Schembechler is a big reason why I'm such a huge Michigan fan. If not for him, the last few days might have been normal for me. If not for him, I might not be worried about missing The Game.

Thanks to Bo, I have a strong passion for Michigan football which, in turn, has helped feed my overall marriage to sports.

Schembechler took over a program that had suffered an unheard-of six losing seasons in 11 years and had been to just one Rose Bowl in 19 years. Basically, he took the reigns of a Michigan program that had lost its identity. It was no longer among college football's elite.

Bo changed that. Right away.

In his first season he led the Wolverines to an 8-3 record - tied for first in the Big Ten - and a birth in the Rose Bowl. He would go on to either win or share the Big Ten title in 13 of his 21 seasons. He finished his coaching career at Michigan with an incredible .796 regular-season winning percentage and he took 17 teams to bowl games - an impressive feat, considering there were far less bowls back then.

Schembechler won seven Big Ten Coach of the Year awards and held a 194-48-5 record at Michigan.

He didn't win a national title and his teams struggled in bowls - going 5-12 and 2-8 in Rose Bowls - but he brought respect back to a drowning program.

And he beat Ohio State.

Bo's teams went 11-9-1 against the Buckeyes, including 5-4-1 when his nemesis - and friend - Woody Hayes led OSU.

By the time Bo stepped down from coaching in 1989, Michigan's program was no longer treading water, and I was becoming a fan.

When I moved to Spring Street in 1994, I was just a mile away from the Big House. My family never had tickets, but on Saturday afternoons I'd hop on my bike and ride down to the stadium to scalp tickets.

I've never made it to a UM-Ohio State game, but I'll never forget the Iowa game in 1997 – the year Michigan went undefeated and won the national title (the Wolverines "technically" shared it with Nebraska, which somehow got crowned in the coach's poll in the last pre-BCS year).

The mid-October clash with the Hawkeyes was Michigan's biggest scare of the season. Michigan trailed 21-7 at the half, but stormed back to grab the lead in the final minutes, and an interception by Sam Sword closed the deal.

I'll never forget that day, or many of the other afternoons I've spent in the Big House cheering on the Wolverines. I'll also never rue how every Sunday morning I'd wake up to check the “Ann Arbor News” sports section, carefully studying all of the top teams' results and schedules and trying to figure out how UM could make the championship game - even if it had one or two losses.

In the early '90s, right after Bo stopped coaching, I became a UM fan. And with the team's success each year, I've become an even bigger fan. Even after the 7-5 record last season, because of UM's tradition I knew this team could be special.

There aren't a lot of programs like that.

Bo won't be watching tomorrow. But thousands of die-hard Wolverines fans all over the world will be. Some are long-time fans - people who've been around since the Fritz Crisler and Benny Oosterbaan days, back before the team's pre-Bo struggles. Others hopped on the train during Bo's coaching days. And then there are fans like myself, who were too young to pay great attention when Bo was on the sideline, but became enamored with UM football soon afterward.

As long as there’s no more chaos, I'll be watching tomorrow afternoon, cheering on the Maize and Blue, but - simultaneously - also not forgetting why Michigan football is such a big part of my life.

"Big Game Prediction? No clue"

I have read it all. All the columns, all the analysis, all the feature articles. I've read it all.

I've memorized the keys to The Game. All the important stats are ingrained in my head (Tressel 4, Carr 1; Troy Smith 2-0 vs. Michigan; Wolverines 17-1 when Hart rushes for 100 yards).

Blah, blah, blah. I've got it all. Everything.

Yet when it comes down to picking the winner of The Game, I'm clueless, as dumbstruck as a dude in Montana who thinks Michigan is on the East Coast.

Oh, there are certainties to this game. Here are a few:

- Troy Smith will score a touchdown (with his arm or legs)
- Mike Hart will score a touchdown (definitely with his legs)
- Lamar Woodley will sack Smith once, but get juked by the QB another time
- There will be at least three field goals attempted
- The Buckeyes won't rush for 60 yards (just like all of Michigan's other opponents, except Minnesota (108 yards)
- Yet Smith, when given time, will shred the UM secondary on the side of the field opposite Leon Hall
- Ted Ginn Jr. will make a big play
- Mario Manningham will make a big play
- There will only be one or two turnovers.
- It will be a low-scoring game
- It will be a close game
- It will come down to coaching

And, here, finally, is where I come out of my womb.

Michigan fans, I'm sure you remember two years ago when the Wolverines faced Texas in the Rose Bowl. Great game. Back-and-forth. Electric offenses. Braylon Edwards. Vince Young.

There was a lot of hype heading into that contest. Well, not so much, if compared to This Game, but let's not do this. It was a hyped up game between very equal teams.

And it came down to the final minute.

Texas was driving for the winning field goal. Michigan had timeouts and Steve Breaston was having an unbelievable day returning kickoffs. But, for some reason, Lloyd Carr didn't use his timeouts, letting the Longhorns wind the clock all the way down until 2 seconds remained.

Then he burned one to "ice" the kicker. The kicker made an easy straight-away, medium-range field goal. Texas won by a point.

Anyway, when looking forward to tomorrow, I believe one of my "certainties" was "it will be a close game," which will mean the decisions made by the coaches in the final minutes will be crucial (almost as important as the play on the field).

Clock management will inevitably be a factor. The coaches will have to decide, in a matter of seconds, when they should burn those precious TOs and when to hold onto them.

Will Carr make a similar mistake to his 2005 Rose Bowl blunder? It's hard to tell.

Just like it's impossible to predict this game. But I will make one forecast.

If Carr commits another time-management sin, I'll be applying for "clock manager" come springtime.

"Saturday Madness"

And to think I considered Thursday night crazy.

Wow.

I returned from a trip to the Blue Mountains today, checked the Internet and was shocked. Three - not one, not two - but three BCS contenders upset by teams they should have beat. Cal went down to Arizona - where the focus by now is entirely on basketball - and fell. Auburn hosted Georgia, which is having an awful season, and didn't just lose. They got drilled! And Texas gave up 45 points to Kansas State (yet still almost won). Thank goodness they didn't, because nobody wants to see a team that got torched by Kansas State in the title game.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes and Wolverines can finally stop saying all the democratic things - "We're taking one game at a time." "Northwestern is all that's on our mind." Blah, blah, blah - and actually start talking about The Game. Six days until everybody in America - and a dude in Sydney - will be watching what goes down at Columbus.

Analysis, predictions, and more columns on this to come throughout the week.

But back to the BCS situation. It's no longer as ugly as I prescribed it to be just days ago. It will be very, very interesting to see the rankings tomorrow. We know what the top two spots will be:

1. OSU
2. UM

And Florida will likely be No. 3 despite barely hanging on to beat South Carolina and Steve Spurrier. But from there, who knows. The question everybody from Jersey to, well, Jersey is asking is, Where will the Scarlet Knights be ranked? Will they get screwed? Do they now have a shot, thanks to the collapses of Cal, Auburn and Texas?

Only, in my opinion, if The Game is a blowout.

In an espn.com poll today, 56 percent of voters - more than 100,000 people voted - said that the BCS title game should be a rematch of The Game. Could you imagine the outrage in either Ann Arbor or Columbus if Rutgers went to Glendale, Ariz. instead of the Buckeyes or Wolverines?

Smashed cars in Columbus ... maybe some burning couches in Ann Arbor.

If you think about it, there could be no controversy at all. Rutgers still has to play West Virginia, a game I think they'll lose. Florida still has FSU - which, yes, is terrible, but think rivalry game - and the SEC title game against Arkansas (unless the 'Backs collapse). USC and Notre Dame play each other, and the Trojans have Cal and UCLA as well.

A rematch of The Game could happen without controversy. Only time will tell.

But no one on those two teams is thinking ahead now. They're taking one game at a time.

And finally that game is The Game.

"BCS mayhem thanks to Rutgers?"

Here in Sydney, I could hear the celebration coming from Jersey. Heck, I could feel the celebration, as 45,000 scarlet-red drowned out the sorrows of 137 years of mediocrity (the last time this team played an important game was when they won the first ever college football game over Princeton, 6-4, in 1869).

Rutgers – yes, Rutgers! – had just beaten Louisville, the No. 3 team in the country, the No. 3 team in the BCS, a team that likely would have ended up in the Fiesta Bowl Jan. 8 if not for Rutgers.

Thank god for those Scarlet Knights. What would BCS Haters do without ‘em? Now, because of their comeback from a 25-7 deficit, because they somehow found a way to shut out the Cardinals in the second half, a week after those same Cardinals dumped 44 points on West Virginia, the previous No. 3 team, the BCS is all messed up.

More messed up than The U right now. And that’s saying something.

Poor Rutgers. No matter how many congratulations cards they receive in the next few days – on the weekend, when football is supposed to be played – they won’t be the new No. 3 team in the BCS. No, that’ll go to some one-loss team. That’s all I can tell ya.

Florida? Auburn? Texas? California? USC? Notre Dame? Wisconsin? Arkansas?

Oh, my, let the debate begin, folks.

All of the above teams, as well as the Scarlet Knights – if they manage to win out against Cincinnati, Syracuse and West Virginia – could make a case to play the loser of the UM-Ohio State game Nov. 18 in the BCS title game.

As could the loser of the UM-Ohio State game.

Folks over at the BCS studios must be saying, “Here we go again,” because this could get ugly.

Here’s the worst-case scenario:
- the UM-Ohio State game is very close, making the loser a candidate to play in a rematch on Jan. 8
- Rutgers wins out, taking each game convincingly
- Texas wins out
- Auburn wins out, finishing 11-1, but not making the SEC championship game
- Florida wins out, and then faces Arkansas, which also wins out, in the SEC championship. The winner of that finishes with just one loss.
- Cal wins out, including a blowout victory of USC, finishing 11-1
- Notre Dame wins out, also torching the Trojans, to finish 11-1
- Wisconsin wins its final two games, against Iowa and Buffalo, by scores of 63-0 and 70-0 so its fans can argue for that BCS bid

If this all happened – which really is quite possible, except for the Wisconsin scores (the Badgers run the ball too much) – that would leave seven teams deserving of a chance to play the UM-Ohio State winner in Glendale.

The loser of the game; Rutgers; Texas; Auburn; Florida/Arkansas; Cal; and Notre Dame.

Wouldn’t that be fun to sort out? Right now in the BCS rankings Florida is just .02 ahead of Texas, which is just .19 in front of Auburn. The next three teams – USC, Cal and Notre Dame – are all within .13 of each other, before there is a significant drop-off to No. 10 West Virginia.

As far as one-loss teams are concerned, it’s tough to call, but I might have to say that an SEC team has the advantage. If Florida wins out – against South Carolina, West Carolina (cupcake!) and Florida State (cheesecake this season) – and beats Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC title game, I see them going to Glendale. If Auburn wins out and gets to play in the title game due to an Arkansas loss, and, of course, wins the title game, the Tigers are going.

Texas needs three things: It needs to win out, including a tough after-Thanksgiving clash with A&M and the Big 12 title game (probably against Nebraska). It needs Florida to lose. And it needs Auburn to lose or not make the SEC title game.

For Cal or ND to make it, I believe they need Texas and the SEC schools to lose. Ditto for the loser of The Game. Unless it’s really, really close and appears really, really well-played on both sides.

And for Rutgers to make it, well, we shall see.

Just don’t count ‘em out. If they can come back from a 25-7 deficit, they can surely find the top of a crippled system.

Yes, the crying in mid-December should be even louder than the cheers coming from Jersey late Thursday night.

Louisville-Rutgers, national title implications?

I can't believe I'm saying this: A Louisville-Rutgers game on a Thursday night in November has national title implications. Wow. Anyway, the game just started and I'm following it on gamecast.

I expect a Louisville win, which would take them one step closer to that perfect season and... a BCS birth?? What a heated debate this could be become. Would an undefeated Louisville deserve a birth over a one-loss Florida, or one-loss Texas, or one-loss Michigan/Ohio State team?

No point in debating it now. I'll give you my take after the game.

"Nov. 18 - mark down the date"

Before then I will buy $200 worth of groceries; I will go hiking in the blue Mountains; I will see "Snakes on a Plane"; I will watch cricket on TV; I will go bar-hopping on the weekend; I will do lots of things.

But nothing will have a chance to live up to what will transpire on November 18, 2006 at 7:30 a.m. here in Sydney. I will find a bar. And within its friendly confines, I will watch one of the most anticipated college football games in decades.

And possibly the most hyped-up Michigan-Ohio State game EVER.

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Michigan. I know they each have a game to play before that fateful afternoon, but there's no way they'll lose. They wouldn't ruin what everyone from Mackinac Island to Columbus is looking forward to.

No way, no how.

Now that the Tigers' amazing championship run has fallen short - never to be forgotten, but to be placed in the past - the entire state of Michigan can focus on November 18.

'Cuz face it, there's no need to pay attention to basketball or hockey until Thanksgiving.

I can only imagine what Ann Arbor will be like in the days leading up to November 18. Here's an imagined conversation between an auto shop worker and a customer.

"The car all right?"
"Yeah, brakes were a little worn, nothing big."
"Nothin' compared to that game on Saturday, huh?"
"Oh, yeah, you got that right. Hopefully they can put the brakes on Smith, huh??"
"Got that right. Little worried about that guy, but hopefully we can get our offensive engine humming."
"Yes, sir, uh-hum."

There will be a pandemonium in town. How could there not be? If I was mayor, no one would have to work between 3:30 and 7 p.m. on November 18.

That's how big this game will be. Bigger than the state of Pennsylvania.

So, yes, life will go on here in Sydney. I'll talk to people about things as if they are important. I'll go food-shopping, as if I'm hungry.

But I'll be honest: the only thing I'm hungry for is the arrival of November 18.