Tuesday, December 05, 2006

"Around the country"

In this column I promise two things:
1 - Plenty of insights on sports within the US.
2 - No B(C)S

So let's get to it.

"NFL talk"
How wacky is the NFL right now? Just check out the wild-card races in both leagues. In the AFC, the following teams are 7-5: Cincinnati, Denver, NY Jets, Kansas City and Jacksonville. Only two of them will make the playoffs. I honestly have no clue which pair will end up with the spots, but if I had to choose, I'd go with the two hottest teams - the Bengals and Jets. The Broncos have lost three in a row and are starting a shaky rookie QB and the Chiefs and Jaguars are maddenly inconsistent. That will cost them down the stretch.

But, I'm sorry AFC, the NFC wild-card picture is even murkier - if that's possible. Here are the teams who still have a realistic chance at securing a wild-card bid:

Philly (6-6) - Never would have thought this possible with McNabb out, but Garcia's three TD's and zero INT's against Carolina Monday night said something.
Carolina (6-6) - I have a churning feeling that "Sports Illustrated's" annual choice for the Super Bowl will somehow miss the playoffs.
Atlanta (6-6) - Seemed dead entering the week with their "coach killer" quarterback, but Vick put his middle finger to good use, and suddenly they're right back in the thick of things.
NY Giants (6-6) - How many more games in a row can this team lose before being eliminated from playoff contention? Actually, they could probably lose one more, but I wouldn't recommend it. G-Men need to find a way to pull out games at the end. Don't count them out.
San Francisco (5-7) - Obviously a long shot, but you can't say "no chance" in this league. Frank Gore has become a Top-10 running back in the NFL.
St. Louis (5-7) - All signs point to the Rams not making the playoffs after an embarrassing home loss to the Cardinals (by a 14-point margin, no less), but if they can somehow get by the Bears on Monday, the rest of their schedule is favorable - at Oakland; vs. Washington; at Minnesota.
Minnesota (5-7) - If not for the Bears, the NFC North might be banned from the NFL - yeah, it's that bad. But... somehow, we can't count out the Vikings. And their two remaining road games are against their NFC North counterparts - the Lions and Packers. You never know...

So, with four weeks to play, there are still 11 teams in the NFC with a legit chance at making the playoffs and nine teams in the AFC (excluding the 5-7 teams). Should be a nutty final month of the regular season.

"NBA talk"
The quietest 12-game winning streak in the history of the league is over. Yes, the Mavericks lost Monday, falling to the Wizards. Good to know it's over. Maybe people would have started noticing if they won 20 straight.

One team that's turning heads is the Orlando Magic. Before the season, people were predicting the Magic as possibly a seven or eight seed, but right now they have a stronghold on the Southeast Division of the Eastern Conference with a 14-5 record. They are five games up on Atlanta - yes, Atlanta - with Miami five and a half back.

And the Magic's success revolves around one thing: balance. They are the Detroit Pistons of 2003-04. Seven players are averaging between eight and 17.2 points per game, with big man Dwight Howard leading the way. Howard is also proving to be an absolute beast on the boards, averaging 13.5 a game (easily the best mark in the league - Toronto's Chris Bosh is next at 12.2) to help Orlando outrebound opponents by nearly four a game.

Finally, as with almost any good team (main exception: see Phoenix Suns) the Magic are playing good defense, limiting opponents to just 93.1 points a game (fifth best in the NBA) on just 43 percent shooting. Howard and reserve Darko Milicic have formed a nice defensive combo down low, with each of them averaging two blocks a game. The Magic aren't spectacular, but playing in the weak Eastern Conference, what they're doing is easily enough to win two out of every three games.

Winning in the Western Conference, however, is not a walk in the park, which makes what Denver's doing all the more impressive. The Nuggets are actually leading the league in scoring (109.9 ppg) - just better than Phoenix's 107.6 average - despite the absence of a main scoring threat down low. Kenyon Martin is gone for the season and Nene Hilario has only played four games and is scoring just eight points a game, yet the Nuggets (10-5) are scorching opponents on a nightly basis.

It all starts with Carmelo Anthony. I think he really got into an offensive groove at the World Championships this summer and it's carrying over to the season. Or maybe he's out to prove that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade aren't clearly the best players from the great draft class of 2003.

Well, he's doing a great job of it. Anthony is leading the league in scoring at 32.3 points per game and even more impressive, he's shooting 52 percent from the field. Instead of settling for 3-pointers (he's just 6-for-23 on the year) he's taking the ball to the basket, earning 9.5 free throw attempts a game. Anthony is playing at an all-time high.

And his performance is rubbing off on his teammates. J.R. Smith is averaging 16.9 points a game. That's not bad for a guy who no one thought would do much in Denver. He's become 'Melo's sidekick. A huge key to whether Denver can keep this up will be Smith. Can he continue to produce? And Andre Miller, who has faded a bit the past couple seasons after leading the league in assists in 2002, is back in form, averaging 13.5 points and 9.3 assists a game. He also has an unheard-of 4.24 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Maybe Miller was feeling the heat from backup Earl Boykins, who continues to amaze at 5-foot-5, scoring more than 10 points and dishing out more than four assists a game. And when talking about the Nuggets' success, you can't forget about the invincible Marcus Camby, who keeps on trucking despite the slew of injuries he's been hit with. A healthy Camby is also averaging double figures in points (10.9) and, most importantly, he's the team's main rebounding presence, grabbing 11.3 a game. Somehow, with Reggie Evans adding 8.6 boards a game, the Nuggets are outrebounding their opponents despite the absence of Martin and the minimal impact of Nene, who's still getting used to game speed.

"MLB talk"
Well, the stove is officially "hot," in fact the flames are turning blue. Yes, it's been a busy off-season in Major League Baseball thus far, with two more marquee signing happening today. Greg Maddux is headed to San Diego and J.D. Drew is going from one coast to the other to play in Boston. The Red Sox are giving Drew $70 million over five years to play right field and bat behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in the lineup.

This 3-4-5 combination sounds formidable, but I'm not sold on Drew as a "big-time player." Drew has played 130-plus games just four of his nine seasons in the majors, and he's hit over .300 just twice (excluding his rookie year, when he played only 14 games). He has hit 30 home runs just once (2004) and last year's 100 RBIs was a career-high for him. And I've never seen great desire from him to succeed. Tony La Russa said it in his book, "Three Nights in August," and I agree - Drew doesn't seem to love the game. He seems to play more for the money than for the team.

I don't know. Maybe this move by Theo Epstein will pay off. But I'm not sold on Drew as someone who can help the Bo Sox back to the playoffs.

The Red Sox also signed shortstop Julio Lugo on Tuesday to a four-year, $36 million deal. Shortstop has been a revolving door position for Boston the past few seasons. The Red Sox didn't retain Orlando Cabrera after he helped them win the World Series. Then Edgar Renteria couldn't handle the pressure of playing the position in Boston, committing 30 errors before he was paid off to leave. And last year's SS, Alex Gonzalez, was let go in free agency.

It will be interesting to see how Lugo pans out in Boston. I have question about him, just like with Drew. He's a career .277 hitter and his career on-base percentage is an average .340. If the Red Sox really plan on having him lead off, Lugo's going to need to improve on those numbers. Also, will he be able to handle the pressure of Boston? Last season in invisible Tampa Bay he was great, hitting .308 and scoring 53 runs in 73 games, but when he was traded to the playoff-contending Dodgers, his numbers slacked dramatically. He hit just .219 and scored only 16 runs in 49 games in LA.

Epstein has been right to make moves this off-season, but I'm not sure if they were the correct signings. And we'll still have to see how the Daisuke Matsuzaka signing works out. Boston has until Dec. 14 to sign the Japanese pitcher.

Maddux signed a one-year, $10 million deal with San Diego, continuing the exodus of players from the Dodgers. While Maddux turns 41 in the spring, he continues to prove that he can pitch in this league. He's won 10 games each of the last 19 seasons - better than any other active pitcher - and his presence in the clubhouse, among several young San Diego pitchers, should be beneficial. Good move by the Padres. He should be worth the $10 million.

I can't hit on all the signings - there are simply too many of them. But one pattern is very evident during this off-season: Several teams are handing out record money for good - but not great - players. It's not just the Yankees anymore.

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