Wednesday, December 06, 2006

"Dumars' two big mistakes"

I'm not gonna lie. I love Joe Dumars. He was my favorite NBA player during the 1990s, even when he was aging and his arching 3-pointers were hitting the front of the rim instead of swishing through the net. I admired him for transforming the Detroit Pistons from a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack team into NBA champions in 2004.

I really like the guy. He's one of the classiest men in sports, no ifs, ands or buts.

But, again, I can't lie in saying that Dumars' work the past three years has been subpar. Nowhere close to as poor as that of, say, his old Bad Boys' teammate, Isiah Thomas.

But Dumars has made two key mistakes as Pistons' GM that are hurting the franchise, which is not to say that the Pistons are falling fast. They're still one of the NBA's elite, but they could be even better.

It all starts with the 2003 NBA draft. Of course the Pistons went on to win the title the following season - making us onlookers oblivious to Dumars' miscue - but now, after two playoff disappointments, we are more apt to examine Dumars' drafting of Darko Milicic with the second pick of the draft behind LeBron James.

I understand Dumars' thinking in taking Milicic. He was a young talent out of Serbia & Montenegro. His potential seemed sky-high. Dumars knew it would take time to develop that talent, but he was fine with that because he knew his current crop of players could win without Milicic (although, more than midway through the season, Dumars realized he needed a big man who could score and traded for Rasheed Wallace).

Milicic, meanwhile, would practice with the team, work with Dumars' specialized assistant coaches - and sit on the bench during games, except in the closing minutes of blowouts. This, of course, is when the Detroit crowd would begin the "We want Dar-ko" chants.

But, in drafting Milicic, Dumars overlooked three studs who have gone on to become stars. Denver drafted Carmelo Anthony, who had just led Syracuse to a national title as a freshman, with the third pick. Toronto took Chris Bosh, a similar young big man like Milicic, but given the opportunity to play large chunks of minutes, Bosh has developed into the Raptors' best player. Finally, Miami took Dwyane Wade, like Anthony a proven winner, who had led Marquette to its first Final Four since Al McGuire's championship team of 1977.

Wade, as you know, has surprised everybody in the league. He, not Shaquille O'Neal, is the Heat's best player. He rallied them to the NBA title last year and this year he is carrying a Shaq-less, uninspired bunch.

Dumars, it seems, was more concerned with drafting a player who wouldn't disturb the chemistry of the group he had than drafting a proven marquee player who had proved he could win games on one of sports' biggest stages. Had he drafted Anthony or Wade, he likely would have had to move one of his starters - either Richard Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince.

I love Hamilton and Prince. I can imagine how difficult it would be for Dumars to ship one of them to another team. They are selfless players who always play hard. But let's be honest here. What Pistons' lineup is more intimidating: One with Hamilton or Anthony starting as the two guard?

The answer's a no-brainer. Anthony has had his ups-and-downs in Denver, but this year he is showing his true colors, leading the league in scoring and shooting over 50 percent. Additionally, he is a better defender than Hamilton and he occasionally draws double teams.

And Anthony hits big shots. Can you imagine a backcourt of Chauncy "Mr. Big Shot" Billups and Anthony? It could have happened had Dumars drafted Anthony. And he wouldn't have necessarily had to dump Hamilton or Prince, either. One could have been the first man off the bench, cutting their minutes down a little, but not a ton. Twenty-five to thirty minutes a game is still a lot for an entire 82-game schedule.

Yes, the Pistons might not have won the championship with Anthony instead of Milicic in 2004. But there have been two seasons since then, and Anthony is still just 22 years old - a year older than Milicic. I bet the Pistons would have a title by now with Anthony, and possibly many more on the horizon.

But Anthony, instead, is tearing it up for Denver, a team that should be in the lower half of the Western Conference. And Milicic isn't even in Detroit anymore.

Which brings me to the second mistake Dumars made: unloading Milicic too soon, and for hardly anything. In fact, not only did Dumars give Orlando Milicic last season, but he also unloaded backup point guard Carlos Arroyo for Kelvin Cato and a possible 2008 first-round draft choice (the Pistons get the pick if the Magic don't draft in the top five in 2007 - which is likely considering Orlando's hot start to the season). Arroyo is having a career year for the Magic, averaging 10.6 points and 3.2 assists a game as a backup to Jameer Nelson.

Milicic, meanwhile, given the minutes he was never granted under Larry Brown and Flip Saunders in Detroit, is putting up decent numbers in Orlando, averaging eight points, 4.9 rebounds and two blocks a game.

Dumars gave up on Milicic too soon. Obviously Dumars has a better basketball eye than most, but if you look at international players - especially those from the 2003 draft - playing in the NBA, it usually takes three or four seasons for them to really become comfortable. Dumars didn't even give Milicic three full seasons.

The Pistons could use Milicic's big body right now. After losing Ben Wallace in the off-season to Chicago, the Pistons - despite the signing of Nazr Mohammed - are short on forwards. Besides Antonio McDyess, Detroit's main big man off the bench is Jason Maxiell, who is undersized at 6-foot-7 and is averaging just 10.4 minutes a game. Mohammed, 29, is not in good enough shape to play big minutes (he's averaging less than 20 a game), which is forcing Rasheed Wallace, 32, to play more than he should (35.5 minutes a game).

One of the Pistons' main downfalls in the playoffs last season was fatigue. The starters - especially the guards - played too many minutes during the season and didn't have any gas left come May. Rasheed Wallace is just as important to this team's fortunes as Billups or Hamilton, and if he's not playing at full throttle in the playoffs, Detroit might not even reach the conference finals.

Milicic's presence would be very beneficial right now. Look around the league at the other foreign players who were chosen in the first round of the 2003 draft. Many of them are thriving for the first time in the league. They are, at last, comfortable.

Mickael Pietrus, who was chosen 11th by Golden State, is playing at an all-time high. After averaging less than 10 points his first three seasons, Pietrus is scoring 12.8 points per game and averaging 5.2 rebounds. We all know about Boris Diaw's story. Chosen 21st by Atlanta, Diaw struggled for two years in HotLanta, averaging less than five points. But he emerged last year in Phoenix, scoring 13.3 points per game, and he was named the NBA's most improved player.

Of course, a lot of Diaw's newfound success can be attributed to the system he joined and the passing of Steve Nash - and his numbers are a little down this season (8.6 ppg; 5.1 rpg; 4.0 apg) - but don't tell anyone in Phoenix that he's not an integral part of their team. He is, and likely will be for years to come.

Diaw's teammate, Leandro Barbosa, was another foreign player chosen in the 2003 draft (with the 28th pick by San Antonio). And Barbosa didn't emerge onto the scene until his third year. He averaged 7.9 and seven points per game his first two seasons before blowing up for 13.1 a game last season. This year he's been even better, averaging a career-high 18.9 points and 4.7 assists a game. Don't even think about mentioning Phoenix's plan for success with throwing in a "Leandro" or "Barbosa." He's a huge part of the NBA title contenders.

But would anyone have thought that a year ago? Probably not.

Phoenix didn't give up on Barbosa, just like Golden State didn't give up on Pietrus, and now both teams are reaping the benefits of their decision. The Pistons, meanwhile, haven't gained anything from the Milicic trade. They thought the move would allow them to re-sign Ben Wallace this past summer, since Cato's $8 million-plus contract expired during the summer, but Chicago outbid Detroit.

And the Pistons are left with nothing, except a 2008 first-round draft pick. Of course, by then the Pistons could be without Billups, who is a free agent after the season. Dumars would be very smart to make sure Billups does not skip town. Do whatever it takes.

Because then he could be back at square one - just like when he became GM in 2000 - with an average team.

2 comments:

Bill Fitzgerald said...

Jake,

I enjoyed this analysis of the Pistons' decline and agree with you about patience in player development (countless examples of American-born players include Joe Johnson and Gilbert Arenas). But I think you are ignoring a large piece of the puzzle: Larry Brown. He got them over the top and back to Game 7 of the Finals. The Pistons under Flip Saunders are much less defense-oriented (maybe attributable to rules changes); some of the numbers they gave up last season never occurred when Brown was there. I'm not saying he should have stayed, clearly that relationship was over, but the impact of hispresenc and his departure needs to be figured into this equation.

Good stuff!

FITZ

Jake Lloyd said...

Yeah, I definitely think the Pistons were better off under Larry Brown - just because of his defensive approach - despite his histrionics on and off the court. But, obviously, there was no way they could keep him after the 2005 season. Flip Saunders was probably the best choice out there for Joe.

Of course I think the Pistons could have won the championship in 2004 with Anthony or Wade, but again, nothing is sure. Especially Anthony might not have been happy coming off the bench. But I agree that the Pistons could have a dynasty right now with one of those two players on the roster.