"A big win, but what now?"

Let's focus on the present... at least for a minute here.

The University of Michigan men's basketball team put together a very solid effort in defeating Michigan State last night 67-56 at Crisler Arena. The Wolverines (20-10) are back on the bubble, and a win Saturday against No. 1 Ohio State would likely put them one Big Ten tournament victory shy of their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1998.

Of course, talking about beating the Buckeyes isn't quite as difficult as guarding Greg Oden or closing out on their five million 3-point shooters. The Wolverines would have to play an even better game than they did Tuesday night to pull off the monumental upset.

It would be perfectly fitting, though. The last time Michigan knocked off a No. 1 team was when it beat Duke during the 1997-98 season - the last year in which it made the tournament.

So things are - kind of - looking up in Ann Arbor. There's no Fire Tommy Amaker Talk this week (but if the Wolverines miss the tournament - which is still the most likely scenario - expect a quick return of FTAT). The Wolverines sold out Crisler on Tuesday and I'd expect the same to happen for Saturday's nationally televised game.

Senior Dion Harris has stepped up of late. Against the Spartans Harris scored a game-high 24 points, including 8-for-8 from the free throw line. And whenever the Spartans threatened to take the lead in the second half, Harris responded with a big bucket.

Senior Courtney Sims also came to play, scoring 13 points and grabbing 10 rebounds off the bench.

And the player whom Michigan's game-to-game success seems to depend the most on, sophomore point guard Jerret Smith, played his best floor game of the season, logging four assists and just one turnover in a game-high 36 minutes of action. Whenever Smith avoids mistakes, the Wolverines are successful. They turned the ball over a season-low eight times on Tuesday.

That's how you win games. By playing mistake-free basketball, good defense and getting big scoring contributions from your seniors.

I'd like to get caught up in the moment. After all, we can only live in the present, right? At least that's what my high school counselor said. But the question must be asked: Where has this been?

Why haven't Harris and Sims shown this kind of leadership all season? How in the world did they let Iowa go on a 20-1 run at Crisler Arena a few weeks back to deal Michigan a devastating loss - the Wolverines' only home loss of the Big Ten season? Where was this effort a mere week ago, when the Wolverines managed just 42 points in a pitiful loss in Champaign, Ill., to a dilapidated Illinois squad? A win in that game, and Saturday's gig with the Buckeyes wouldn't be so much of a must-win. Now, it's beat the Buckeyes or win at least three games in the Big Ten tournament.

Yeah, the odds are stacked against the Wolverines. It certainly didn't have to be like this. If the Wolverines had shown up to play Georgetown in front of a home sellout crowd back in December and pulled out a victory, no one would be talking about their lack of a "signature victory." The Hoyas are now a top-10 team. But Michigan completely tanked in that game, shooting horribly and allowing Georgetown to shoot 52 percent from the field. Sims put together a marvelous disappearing act, attempting just four shots and scoring four points.

Inconsistency has plagued the Wolverines all season. They're a very good representation of the stock market. One day they're looking good, people are talking about the NCAA tournament and Amaker is off the hot seat. A few days later, they're a disgrace headed to another NIT and Amaker needs to go at season's end. It's a rollercoaster ride, and they've gone down more hills than they've climbed.

By a slight margin.

The realist would say it's time for another descent. After all, Michigan hasn't won three straight games since they beat up on no-names in mid-December. A win over Ohio State would be three in a row. Only a huge optimist would give the Wolverines a chance Saturday. They'd point to Michigan's 17-3 home record this season, including 6-1 in the conference. They'd point out that it will be Senior Day, and Harris, Sims and Brent Petway will refuse defeat.

It all sounds good. It reads like a recipe for success. But the Wolverines still have to take the court. It will be the biggest game at Crisler Arena in quite sometime. And it should be a voluble atmosphere - at least at tipoff.

But will it stay that way for two hours? And even if it does - even if the Wolverines pull off the impossible - they'll still likely need that win in the Big Ten tournament.

What would keep the rollercoaster from racing downhill after Saturday?