Saturday, March 10, 2007

"Michigan's woes must fall on Amaker"

Dion Harris caught the ball on the fastbreak and was going up for a relatively uncontested layup, which could have cut Michigan's deficit to eight points with still four minutes to play, when he lost it. The ball simply slipped out of his hands and out of bounds. Timeout. Ohio State ball. Game over. NCAA tournament hopes dashed.

No, Michigan's loss to the Buckeyes in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament on Friday wasn't because of this one play (think: Greg Oden's dominance, 16 turnovers, two misses of front ends of bonus opportunities, a terrible shooting afternoon by Harris, little productivity from Courtney Sims, etc.). But Harris' miscue was a perfect representation of this season for the Wolverines - and, ultimately, of the entire six-year reign of Tommy Amaker as head coach.

Missed opportunities.

That's what the Wolverines' struggles have been all about. They simply have not capitalized on their chances for success. And that falls on Amaker.

To Amaker's credit, the Wolverines played some of their best basketball the past two weeks. Their best two games of the season were their home victory over Michigan State and the first 36 minutes of their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State a week ago. The team played as a unit in these games. The offense was about as smooth as it's ever going to be without a good point guard. The effort on the defensive end was there.

It was the sign of a good coach - getting his players to play their best basketball at the end of the season. But when they've been playing mediocre - often heartless - basketball up until the season's final weeks, it's too late. And that's the sign of a poor coach - not being able to get through to his players until it's crunch time.

Michigan didn't cost itself an NCAA tournament bid a week ago or on Friday. Yes, it basically giftwrapped the game for the Buckeyes at Crisler Arena. But until the final minutes, the Wolverines played their best game of the year against a team that is clearly more talented than them (On Friday that talent showed itself very clearly in the form of Greg Oden. He was unstoppable).

Michigan's tournament hopes went down the drain for a ninth consecutive year in December, and January and even February. In its one non-conference home game against a school you can locate on a map, Georgetown, Michigan played lackadaisical and lost by a large margin. A win in that contest would at least have Michigan on the bubble right now because while the Hoyas were struggling at that point of the season - they weren't even in the top 25 - now they're arguably college hoop's hottest team and likely a No. 2 seed come 6 p.m. today.

Then, during the Big Ten season, Michigan often looked uninterested in road games. It was blown out at Purdue and Indiana. It looked awful at Michigan State and Illinois. It got crushed against Wisconsin. It only beat Northwestern and Minnesota away from home. And the only loss it looked decent in was against those same Buckeyes.

One or two quality road wins, and we'd be talking NCAA tournament.

Finally, and this is the clincher, Michigan's home collapse against Iowa was absolutely unacceptable. The Wolverines held a comfortable lead until Iowa went on a 20-1 second-half run to surge ahead. No NCAA tournament team squanders a big lead at home against a non-tournament team such as the Hawkeyes.

Blame the coach and his staff

Michigan's failures come back to Amaker and his coaching staff. He needs to be fired. It's that simple. Has he done a great job of cleaning up the program and recruiting players who stay for four years? Yes. Is he a class act? Undoubtedly. But is he - at least at Michigan - a good head coach?

No. No. No.

There are two main reasons for Michigan's failures the past six years. Since this season had been a microcosm of the Amaker Era, I'm just going to focus on it.

The players hardly get better

First off, he is not very good at developing players. Look at this year's senior class. Tell me - is Lester Abram any better than he was as a freshman? No, he's worse. Some of that has to do with the injuries he's suffered and his rehabilitation from them, but he's been healthy this season, and he's been achingly inconsistent.

What about Dion Harris? He averaged three more points this season than he did as a freshman. And his field goal percentage was worse. Amaker's inability to recruit a suitable backup point guard to Daniel Horton might have cost Harris a shot at the NBA. While his adaptation to playing the point guard role the last couple years when Horton was out is admirable, Harris never looked comfortable at the position. He is a true shooting guard - with a beautiful shot - who unfortunately had to take a lot more 3-pointers off the dribble than off the pass.

Finally, seniors Courtney Sims and Brent Petway need to be mentioned. While Sims' scoring average improved two points from his freshman year to his sophomore year, it hasn't even increased two points since then despite Sims being Michigan's lone inside offensive threat. Of more concern, his rebounding numbers have increased by just one rebound since his sophomore season. Anyone who's watched Sims for four years knows his main problem is a lack of aggressiveness and assertiveness. Yet, with a few exceptions this year, Sims still appeared too cautious and slow on the court. Has he improved from a year ago? Yes. But not as much as a player of his caliber should have.

Petway may be the most glaring example of Amaker and his coaching staff's inability to develop players over four years. Petway is arguably the greatest leaper in college basketball. Some of the ally-oops he converts are simply amazing. But the rest of his offensive repertoire hasn't come to fruition. It's easy to joke about how many of his points in a given games are going to be on ally-oops and putback dunks. If Michigan's coaches could have broadened Petway's game to include post moves and a mid-range jumper (which, obviously, would be unblockable) he could have been a dominating college player. Instead, he has just been occasionally exciting.

Stop playing cupcakes

Amaker's second big mistake has been non-conference scheduling. The Wolverines have played ridiculously weak non-conference schedules just about every season under Amaker, and it kills them come Big Ten season because they are not prepared for the tough games - especially on the road. Additionally, if they are on the bubble come tournament time, their resume is always weakened by a glaring lack of good non-conference wins (an ESPN graphic actually listed Davidson as a "key win" this year for Michigan because Davidson won its obscure conference tournament).

Who did Michigan beat this season in non-conference play (besides, Davidson, of course)? Their best win was probably over Miami of Ohio, which won the MAC tournament on a lucky 3-pointer at the buzzer Saturday night. That's sad. The only good teams Michigan played were UCLA (who's really good and obliterated Michigan) and Georgetown. The Wolverines also played North Carolina State on the road, but that was part of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, in which the Wolverines are required to compete in.

So, basically, Michigan played in two tough non-conference games in late December (UCLA was Dec. 23 and Georgetown Dec. 30) and got smoked in both games because it hadn't played anyone to prepare for them. Why not play a Missouri Valley team or a middle-of-the-pack Big East team to lead up to UCLA and Georgetown (two teams who could easily end up in the Final Four)? It makes perfect sense. Yet Amaker thought playing Wofford would suffice.

What makes the weak scheduling sadder is that Michigan has a senior-laden team this year. Harris, Abram, Petway and Sims have all played four years at Michigan. Yet Amaker somehow didn't feel they were ready for tough non-conference play.

It doesn't make sense. But then again, it does - at least in a way. Jim Carty of the "Ann Arbor News" wrote in a column Saturday that Amaker doesn't follow any of the NCAA tournament talk about which teams are "in" and which teams are on "the bubble" and what criteria teams need to make the Big Dance. Amaker just coaches. And that'd be fine if he was at North Carolina, with enough talent to spread around the entire ACC. But when you're at a school that's been longing for eight years just to make it to the NCAA tournament, you need to do whatever you have to - legally, of course - to make it happen. Listen to the experts. Schedule the tough teams in December. Don't be afraid of losing to good teams. It will make you better in those close games in early March (aka the meltdown against the Buckeyes).

But, no. Amaker doesn't follow the hype. And now, when the field of 65 is announced tonight, his kids won't be a part of the hype. They'll prepare for another NIT appearance - their third in four years - and they'll be left to wonder what the thrill of playing in the NCAA tournament is like.

Mostly because their coach didn't know how to lead them there.

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