Friday, March 16, 2007

"NCAA tournament Day 1 diary"


What a... non-exciting day in the Big Dance???

Did I just say that? Wow. Unbelievable. Shocking.

The men's NCAA tournament had its most uneventful, non-"upsetting" first day in at least half a decade Thursday (and I don't even have to look that one up; it's the truth). Only three lower seeds won, and two of those were No. 9 seeds (Michigan State and Xavier). The other "upset" - VCU over Duke - was a No. 11 over a 6, which isn't a huge shocker. And, honestly, Duke didn't deserve a No. 6 seed anyway. It was more of a 7-10 matchup.

So, basically, things played out like they were supposed to. Which is cool, except that it isn't, because this never happens. And it's much more exciting to see the little guys rule, until you look down at your busted bracket. (On a side note, my bracket is relatively unscathed - like, probably, the majority of people's - after a 13-for-16 opening day).

But I'm not going to stop beating myself over the head - for at least a week and a half - for picking Stanford and George Washington, two teams that got absolutely obliterated by Louisville and Vanderbilt, respectively. I apologize to anyone who listened to my picks on those two. I don't know what I was thinking taking a young Stanford team playing on the road in Lexington (I regretted the pick as soon as the Cardinal were down five), and George Washington was simply a brain fart. If not for those lousy picks and my choice of the 'Zags over Indiana, I would have been perfect on the day.

Which really isn't saying much, considering how normal the games were. A common theme: The smaller underdog would stay with the bigger, stronger team for a half, or even a half and a half, but then the favorite would flex its muscle and pull away. We haven't seen that the past few years. Here is the biggest reason, I believe, for Thursday's top-heavy results.

- The smaller schools, such as Oral Roberts (which lost to Washington State) and Old Dominion (which collapsed against Butler) relied way too much on the 3-pointer when they got down. They started chucking up treys instead of taking the ball to the basket and getting to the free throw line.

- The bigger teams, on the other hand, didn't rely on the outside shot (with the exception of hot-shooting Butler and Vandy). Even Indiana, which shot lights out in the first half against Gonzaga, threw the ball down low to D.J. White in the second half, possession after possession, and had great success doing so. Not only did White score 16 points and grab 11 rebounds, but he also received great attention on the block, freeing Indiana's outside shooters, who buried nine triples.

In Maryland's win over Davidson, the Terrapins simply beat up the Wildcats, outrebounding them 49-31. While Davidson's freshman guard Stephen Curry was outstanding, connecting on five 3-pointers to score 30 points, the Terrapins did a good job of not settling for 3's on the other end. While Davidson was 10-for-37 from 3-point range, Maryland was a much more efficient 6-for-17. All of the favorites who won did an excellent job (most of the time) of working the ball on offense to find the best shot. They were very disciplined.

But is this dominance by the higher seeds going to last? Nope, very doubtful. Look for a bevy of upsets - and a return to normalcy - today. A couple of upsets I could certainly see happening are in the South Regional, where Albany takes on No. 4 seed Virginia in the earliest game and then Long Beach State battles No. 5 seed Tennessee. While Virginia gets outstanding guard play from Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds, I think it relies on that duo too much, and it's also not the most disciplined team. I think a good effort by Albany could result in the biggest upset so far of the Dance. And Tennessee-LBSU should be a shootout. Both teams like to get up and down the court. And as long as LBSU takes good care of the basketball so that it takes as many shots as the Volunteers, it has a fighting chance.

As far as the game of the day, don't miss the Creighton-Nevada matchup. I love both of these teams, which is why - for my bracket's sake - I hate the fact that they're playing in the first round. Creighton's Nate Funk is one of the most clutch players in the land, and Nevada's trio of Nick Fazekas (a likely lottery pick), Marcelus Kemp and Kyle Shiloh (if he plays) is deadly. Should be a great first-round game.

So it's time to move on to Day 2. Day 1 produced just three out of 16 games decided by less than 10 points, an absolutely amazing number for the Big Dance. Don't expect this to continue, however.

Today will be nuts, berserk, absolute chaos. Favorites will fall. Brackets will be scathed by red X's. There will be several nail-biters.

That's the beauty of this first weekend. There may be one uneventful day. But there's always the next day, and it's rarely the same.

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