Friday, November 17, 2006

"Big Game Prediction? No clue"

I have read it all. All the columns, all the analysis, all the feature articles. I've read it all.

I've memorized the keys to The Game. All the important stats are ingrained in my head (Tressel 4, Carr 1; Troy Smith 2-0 vs. Michigan; Wolverines 17-1 when Hart rushes for 100 yards).

Blah, blah, blah. I've got it all. Everything.

Yet when it comes down to picking the winner of The Game, I'm clueless, as dumbstruck as a dude in Montana who thinks Michigan is on the East Coast.

Oh, there are certainties to this game. Here are a few:

- Troy Smith will score a touchdown (with his arm or legs)
- Mike Hart will score a touchdown (definitely with his legs)
- Lamar Woodley will sack Smith once, but get juked by the QB another time
- There will be at least three field goals attempted
- The Buckeyes won't rush for 60 yards (just like all of Michigan's other opponents, except Minnesota (108 yards)
- Yet Smith, when given time, will shred the UM secondary on the side of the field opposite Leon Hall
- Ted Ginn Jr. will make a big play
- Mario Manningham will make a big play
- There will only be one or two turnovers.
- It will be a low-scoring game
- It will be a close game
- It will come down to coaching

And, here, finally, is where I come out of my womb.

Michigan fans, I'm sure you remember two years ago when the Wolverines faced Texas in the Rose Bowl. Great game. Back-and-forth. Electric offenses. Braylon Edwards. Vince Young.

There was a lot of hype heading into that contest. Well, not so much, if compared to This Game, but let's not do this. It was a hyped up game between very equal teams.

And it came down to the final minute.

Texas was driving for the winning field goal. Michigan had timeouts and Steve Breaston was having an unbelievable day returning kickoffs. But, for some reason, Lloyd Carr didn't use his timeouts, letting the Longhorns wind the clock all the way down until 2 seconds remained.

Then he burned one to "ice" the kicker. The kicker made an easy straight-away, medium-range field goal. Texas won by a point.

Anyway, when looking forward to tomorrow, I believe one of my "certainties" was "it will be a close game," which will mean the decisions made by the coaches in the final minutes will be crucial (almost as important as the play on the field).

Clock management will inevitably be a factor. The coaches will have to decide, in a matter of seconds, when they should burn those precious TOs and when to hold onto them.

Will Carr make a similar mistake to his 2005 Rose Bowl blunder? It's hard to tell.

Just like it's impossible to predict this game. But I will make one forecast.

If Carr commits another time-management sin, I'll be applying for "clock manager" come springtime.

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