"College football wrap-up"

What a Saturday in college football. As much as it pains me to punch the keys after a Michigan loss, there still is a lot that can happen in the next two weekends. Nothing is certain except that the Buckeyes are headed to Glendale. With that said, here's my BCS outlook.

I said it in my previous column: I think a Michigan-Ohio State rematch should happen on Jan. 8. This unlikely scenario would have been helped by a USC loss to Cal tonight, but the Trojans scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 23-9 win. The Trojans will be No. 2 in the BCS this week, heading into their matchup with Notre Dame next Saturday. And if USC gets by the Irish and then UCLA a week later, it'll be playing the Buckeyes. No questions there.

But what if Notre Dame wins Saturday? How can the BCS take the Irish over the Wolverines, who demolished them 47-21 back in September? Unlike in past seasons, Notre Dame's resume isn't that strong. Its biggest win was its opening-game victory over Georgia Tech on the road. It beat No. 19 Penn State a week later, but the Nittany Lions (8-4) are no longer ranked (and Michigan also defeated PSU). The Irish needed a late touchdown to sneak by a weak UCLA team (currently 6-5) and 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points to sneak by 4-8 Michigan State, which Michigan killed 31-13. Besides that, their wins have come over Purdue (8-4), Stanford (1-10), Navy (8-3), UNC (2-9), Air Force (4-6) and Army (3-8).

To summarize, out of the 10 teams Notre Dame has defeated, only five currently sport winning records. The cumulative record of Notre Dame's opponents is 51-59. Not exactly impressive.

While Michigan's schedule hasn't been stalwart, they weren't really threatened in any of their wins, which included the blowout in South Bend and a home win over now-No. 12 Wisconsin (11-1) which in just about any other year would be headed to a BCS bowl instead of the Citrus Bowl. The fact that just four of Michigan's wins came over teams that currently hold winning records is deceiving. Minnesota and Iowa are both 6-6 and Indiana is 5-7. The overall record of the 10 teams Michigan destroyed is 69-60.

OK, enough numbers. I think it's pretty obvious - even if the Irish defeat USC next week - that the Wolverines deserve the championship game over the Irish.

As far as Florida and Arkansas are concerned, anyone who has watched the two teams play and watched Michigan knows who's better. The Gators needed three blocked kicks to sneak past South Carolina (6-5) a week ago and they only have two quality wins, defeating Tennessee by a point and LSU by 13. A win over Georgia does not look as impressive as in other years because of the 7-4 Bulldogs' struggles. Florida's victory this weekend came over I-AA West Carolina, which is 2-9.

While Arkansas has put together a great season, not losing since it was pasted back in September by USC 50-14, its body of work is still not as impressive as Michigan's. I'll be higher on the Razorbacks if they can get by No. 9 LSU on Friday and then beat Florida in the SEC title game.

I'd be more inclined to put Arkansas against the Buckeyes than the Gators. But Arkansas over Michigan? Forget about it.

Anyway, for Michigan to make the trip to Glendale, here is what I think needs to happen:
- USC loses one of last two games (vs. Notre Dame; at UCLA)
- if Notre Dame wins Saturday, it is very close and not that impressive
- Arkansas loses to LSU on Friday
- Arkansas defeats Florida in the SEC championship game
OR
- Florida loses to Florida State on Saturday and Arkansas loses to LSU or Florida

I'll be rooting for this to happen, but as you can see, there are a lot of "ifs."

On another note, how can you not feel a little sorry for Wisconsin. Almost any year an 11-1 record will get a Big Ten team into a BCS bowl. But the Badgers find themselves in the Citrus Bowl, where they will face a team with at least two losses. True, the Badgers didn't have to play Ohio State. But, still, finishing with that record in the Big Ten is impressive. Even in a weaker-than-usual Big Ten.

Finally, Rutgers came down to earth Saturday, getting ripped apart by 6-5 Cincinnati (and its backup QB) 30-11. Now we won't have to worry about Rutgers fans complaining when their team is left out of the title game. If that Rutgers-Buckeyes matchup did occur, my prediction: 49-14 OSU.

That's enough college football for now. These next two weeks should be very interesting.