Saturday, November 25, 2006

"Navigating the sports universe"

I was going to write about a specific topic - maybe how there should be a three-team playoff in college football, the Utah Jazz, baseball's moneymakers or the indomitable Tiger - but then I realized just how much is going on in the sports world. So, I figured, why not try to touch on all of it. Try the apple and pecan pie - not just the pumpkin. So grab a turkey sandwich, pour some milk, sit back and enjoy.

"KG's situation"
I can guarantee you this: Kevin Garnett will never win a championship with Minnesota. GM Kevin McHale will never give him the supporting cast he needs, and even if McHale steps down, I don't see a new GM making that happen - especially with the money they're paying KG. Garnett isn't blameless, however. I think the Timberwolves had the talent to win with Cassell and Spreewell, but didn't get it done, as KG struggled in the playoffs. There were times he didn't take the big shot when he should have. KG, who won the league MVP in 2004, is still easily one of the top 10 players in the league. It'll be a shame if we never see him on the big stage though.

"Woe, Gilbert"
Washington's Gilbert Arenas may be averaging 26.2 points and 6.2 assists per game, but he's struggling to lead the 4-9 underachieving Washington Wizards. Maybe that new house with the specially refined air is affecting him. He's shooting a pitiful 38 percent and he hasn't played well on the road, which is why, most likely, Washington is 0-7 away from home. Arenas' shooting performances on the road: 1-12; 2-12; 6-20; 5-19; 7-20; 9-25; 8-26. Arenas needs to shoot the ball much better otherwise the Wiz may end up out of the playoffs, as hard as that is to believe in the atrocious Eastern Conference.

"Yeah, that Eastern Conference...."
The Central Division was supposed to be the NBA's best. Well, not quite. After Saturday’s action its five teams were 33-34 and if not for Indiana's win Friday night, it would have just two winnings squads (9-5 Detroit and 9-5 Cleveland). Miami - somehow - won a championship five months ago with the exact same group of players who have gone 5-8. New Jersey was supposed to be improved with "Vince during contract year" and Marcus Williams spelling Jason Kidd. Hey, at least 5-7 is good enough for first in the Atlantic Division with Philadelphia and Boston tied for second at 5-8. The cumulative record of the teams in the Atlantic? Try 23-42. The only pleasant surprise in the East is Orlando, which is 10-4. And, yet, I've got this feeling that again a team from the East will walk away with the title, making that three in four years.

"Million Dollar Babies"
I must admit: I have been a bit surprised by the amount of dough being thrown at major leaguers older than 28 this off-season. The craziest deal? The Houston Astros dumping $100 million to sign 30-year-old Carlos Lee for six years. Lee is a very good major league hitter. He's hit at least 30 home runs each of the past four seasons. But he's not a great player. He's no Pujols; no Bonds; no Lance Berkman even. Lee, who has played in two All-Star Games, has never been in the top 10 in the league in on-base percentage or slugging percentage. Again, he's good, but not great. I guess this goes back to the lack of a salary cap in baseball. Teams are following George Steinbrenner's lead, dishing out big bucks for anyone they can get.

Take the Cubs, for example. They have already signed Alfonso Soriano (eight years, $136 million) and Aramis Ramirez (five years, $75 million), and many people say they're not done wheeling and dealing. While you can't fault teams taking an aggressive approach to improving (the Cubs will definitely be better in 2007) I wonder whether these spending sprees are the way to go. After all, if you look at recent World Series champions, they didn't necessarily feature lineups full of veteran stars. The MVP of the Cardinals this October was David Eckstein, a feisty leadoff hitter. The White Sox had no proverbial star in 2005 - just a bunch of guys who could manufacture runs and an overachieving pitching staff. The 2003 Marlins had zero big-names. It was just a bunch of young, hungry players. While there is no doubting Lee's and Ramirez's desire to win their first World Series, I think a lot of the time good veteran players are overvalued.

"Can anyone stop Tiger?"
We are currently in golf's "off-season," so it wouldn't be surprising to not hear Tiger Wood's name in the news for a while, maybe until after Christmas. Let the other guys win some tournaments. Give 'em a break. No such luck. Tiger put an exclamation point on a dominating season by winning the Grand Slam of Golf for a record seventh time on Wednesday. And he showed his versatility, too, coming back from a three-stroke deficit to Jim Furyk to claim the tournament. Most of the time Woods grabs a lead early in a tournament and never relinquishes it, but, I surmise, since it was only a two-day event, Woods figured a comeback would make for better theater. In a year in which he suffered through the death of his father, Earl Woods - with whom he was very close - Woods showed amazing resolve, winning eight tournaments, including the British Open and PGA Championship. He is alone in second place on the all-time majors list with 12. Only Jack Nicklaus' 18 stands in front of him.

With the way Woods is playing, I'm saying give him five years and he'll be ahead of Jack.

"Butler wins the NIT Season Tip-Off"
It's not close to March, but the Madness has already begun. The reason I wrote that column about the 'Zags a few days ago? Because I knew the Bulldogs might fall to Butler, which is also the Bulldogs. The undefeated Bulldogs beat Indiana, Notre Dame, Tennessee and the 'Zags to claim the title. Very impressive. It's safe to say that when the real Madness beckons, the Bulldogs - marring an awful rest of the season - will be in the discussion, if they don't win their conference, for an at-large bid.

"Tiki's Take"
Tiki Barber couldn’t have been more correct when he criticized the Giants coaches this week for their playcalling during the Giants' 26-10 loss to Jacksonville Monday night. Barber was frustrated that New York abandoned the running game early after falling behind. He finished with just 27 yards on 10 carries. Coach Tom Coughlin was not pleased with Barber for his comments, but Barber was right in this case. He may be retiring at the end of the season, but right now he's one of the best backs in the league. Unless it's the fourth quarter or the Giants trail by a large margin, Barber should be involved in the game. Barber's 998 yards heading into last weekend was fourth best in the NFL.

Against Jacksonville the Giants trailed just 10-3 at the half and 16-10 after three quarters. Their biggest deficit pre-fourth quarter was 13-3! Run the stinking ball. Eli Manning is a good quarterback, but he's not good when the defense knows what's coming - especially a solid D like the Jaguars'. While Coughlin had to respond to Barber in order to let his team know that he won't tolerate criticism of the coaches' decisions, he should take Barber's words to heart. We'll see if he did this weekend when the Giants travel to Tennessee.

"USC rolls"
I had to delay this column until the end of the Trojans' huge win over the Irish in case something incredible happened - which was not the case. USC dominated the Irish. The Trojans scoring drives looked effortless. When Notre Dame managed to score, it took them forever. They had to exude way more effort than the Trojans. While Dwayne Jarrett's three-TD performance brought back memories of Mike Williams just a few years ago, I was most impressed by the Trojans' defense. With the exception of a long run by Brady Quinn, they did a good job against the run, and their pass coverage was especially impressive. Quinn didn't even complete 50 percent of his passes. I don't think it's as clear anymore that Michigan is the No. 2 team in the land. I would still take the Wolverines over the Trojans - I'd like to see how John David Booty would respond to Michigan's pass rush - but in a close game. That's why there should be a three-team playoff this year. Never gonna happen, but it'd be perfect. Have USC and Michigan play on New Year's Day and then the winner take on the Buckeyes a week later. That'd be the best way to determine the title.

Of course USC hasn't clinched it yet, but a win over UCLA next Saturday will put them in the title game. Don't pencil it in - the Bruins will have had two weeks to prepare - but I'd be shocked if it's a close game. Meanwhile, the SEC contenders proved this weekend why they're not quite on the same level as OSU, USC and Michigan. Arkansas lost any hope of receiving a miracle bid to Glendale after losing to LSU at home. And Florida snuck by the worst Florida State team in decades, 21-14. If USC and Florida win on Saturday, the best scenario would be for the Trojans to go to Glendale and for the one-loss Gators and Wolverines to meet in Pasadena. There definitely should not be a Notre Dame-Michigan rematch in the Rose Bowl. And Florida is the only BCS team out of the top three who could challenge the Wolverines.

"Ready for Bears-Patriots"
I'm expecting a great game in Foxboro this afternoon when the 9-1 Bears tangle with the 7-3 Patriots. New England is obviously back on track after stomping the Packers last week, 35-0, and the Bears? Well they keep on winning. Consecutive wins in New York is not an easy thing to do. Tom Brady taking on the Bears defense should be a heck of a matchup. Chicago is coming off a shutout and expect it to attack Brady, considering New England's lack of a big-play receiver. On the other side of the ball, the Bears' offense was not especially impressive last week, scoring a field goal after an ill-advised onside kick by the Jets and scoring their lone TD on a long pass. Expect them to try to establish the run to take pressure off Rex Grossman. If they can remain balanced, I believe Grossman will make some plays in the second half. Just enough to grab the well-earned victory.

Prediction: Bears 13, Patriots 10

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