Wednesday, November 08, 2006

NBA preview Part I - Eastern Conference

OK, no joking around. It's time to get down to business. Before I give you the abridged version of my NBA preview, let me just make myself clear that I claim no responsibility for dollars or horses lost over bets made because of my picks. With that said, here's a team-by-team outlook of the Eastern Conference. Western Conference and playoff preview will come your way tomorrow.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
No. 1 - Detroit Pistons; 56-26 (1st in the East)
Despite a no-longer-scary defense and an offense that can become very stagnant, as witnessed during the Eastern Conference Finals last year, the Pistons still have the best starting lineup in basketball and an improved bench. Flip Saunders won't play his starters as much during the regular season this time around - a lesson learned, unfortunately, during the playoffs. That will result in a few less wins, but still the top seed in the East. Just barely.

No. 2 - Cleveland Cavaliers; 54-28 (2nd in the East)
This team, as young and talented as it is, is only going to improve, which has to be a frightening thought for the rest of the league. And, yes, LeBron will be even better as well. The key is how well LeBron and Larry Hughes - who was injured for a good chunk of last season and missed most of the Cavs' playoff action - will be able to work together. If Hughes regains the offensive repertoire he branded in Washington, watch out, this could be a dynamic duo. Also, of course, LeBron has to stay health. A LeBronless Cleveland team is just another Atlanta Hawks, except without a single player who can jump through the roof.

No. 3 - Chicago Bulls; 49-33 (5th in the East)
Great defensive team, but do they have enough firepower to become contenders? I'm not so sure. This is a perimeter-oriented team on offensive, which means they are going to be streaky, as witness by their first two games (a blowout win over the defending champion Heat and an ugly loss to the Magic). Their defense will keep them in most games, but they won’t go far in the playoffs without that low-post threat.

No. 4 – Indiana Pacers; 43-39 (7th in East)
How great a job has Rick Carlisle done just to keep this team afloat and respectable the past few years with all the off-the-court distractions? And now, Stephen Jackson almost gets shot? How much more can this team take? Well, somehow they’re still a playoff team. As long as Jermaine O’Neal stays healthy, which is a big IF. Youngsters Danny Granger and newly acquired Marquis Daniels should bring some aggressiveness to the court that has been lacking since Mr. Artest’s departure.

No. 5 – Milwaukee Bucks; 37-45 (9th in the East)
Not a bad team, but not a playoff team. Getting Charlie Villanueva from Toronto was a plus. He and Andrew Bogut will complement each other in the post, just like Villanueva and Josh Boone did at UConn. Michael Redd might be the most underrated player in the league. Never gets much attention, playing in media-lacking Milwaukee, but always puts up big numbers, often carrying the Bucks on his shoulders. If they want to become playoff worthy, the players around him will need to lighten that load.

Atlantic Division
No. 1 – New Jersey Nets; 50-32 (4th in the East)
Lucky Nets. A handful of college teams could finish in the top half of this division. Yeah, it’s that bad. Thankfully for Atlantic Division fans (if there are any) the Nets have managed to remain a solid team under coach Lawrence Frank. The good news this year is that it’s a contract season for Vince Carter. He’s gonna play hard all the time. At least I think. Marcus Williams was a steal in the draft. If he can spell Jason Kidd enough to allow the aging star some rest, this team could be dangerous come playoff time.

No. 2 – Philadelphia 76rs; 35-47 (10th in the East)
The only reason they will finish this high in the division because of how utterly awful the division is (did I mention that?). And because of AI. Despite all the trade talk, he’s still one of the league’s best players and he hates to lose. He’s a lock to win a few games by himself each year. Besides aging Chris Weber, this team has a group of athletic young guns to support AI. Kyle Korver, Andre Iguodala, and Samuel Dalembert all have upside. But not enough to let this team even smell the playoffs.

No. 3 – New York Knicks; 34-48 (11th in the East)
I don’t know why, but something in my head keeps telling me the Knicks will somehow make the playoffs. I’m not listening to that voice. Yes, they have talent. Yes, they have a HUGE payroll. But it doesn’t matter. You need to have chemistry to win in this league. The Knicks don’t have that. They’re the Mavericks before they got good. A bunch of players who want to shoot. The biggest story will be seeing how long it takes for Isiah to get pushed out the door.

No. 4 – Toronto Raptors; 32-50 (12th in the East)
I like three players on this team: Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford (acquired during the off-season), and Morris Peterson. Unfortunately, those three aren’t good enough to breed optimism in Canada. I didn’t like the drafting of Andrea Bargnani, and Rasho Nesterovic should not be a starting center in the NBA. With Bosh, Ford and Peterson, this franchise has a foundation for success. Now it needs to build on it.

No. 5 – Boston Celtics; 28-54 (13th in the East)
Red won’t be missing much this season. The Celtics have hit rock-bottom. Their starting center, Theo Ratliff, is old and can’t score (somehow, he can still block shots though). Their starting point guard, Sebastien Telfair, can’t escape his off-court issues. And while Paul Pierce can still shoot the lights out on a given night, you have to wonder how much motivation he still has with all the young players who have come to the organization with promise and ended up pancakes. Rajon Rondo could be next.

Southeast Division
No. 1 – Miami Heat; 52-30
Logically, this team should simply go out and win the whole thing again. After all, every single ingredient returns from last year. However, many of those ingredients have sitting in the fridge for too long. GP, ‘Zo, Shaq and ‘Toine are all on their last legs. And you can’t help but wonder how motivated these guys are now that they got their championship. Still, the Heat have one of the best three players in the league in Dwyane Wade, and he will carry them all season long. The dilemma for Pat Riley: how much should he play Wade in an effort to A) win the division and get a good playoff seed; B) keep him rested for another playoff run. Should be interesting to see how things unfold.

No. 2 – Washington Wizards; 46-36 (6th in the East)
No one’s talking about the Wizards, but you can’t ignore their Big Three of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. Together, they can keep the Wizards in any game. I’m very skeptical of starting DeShawn Stevenson, an unproven player, and starting center Brandon Haywood is still nothing more than mediocre. But if the Big Three stay healthy, this team will finish right around where they did last year. And I wouldn’t want to play them in a first-round playoff series.

No. 3 – Orlando Magic; 41-41 (8th in the East)
There are a lot of questions with this team, such as: Will Grant Hill stay healthy? And will Darko Milicic back up what everybody is saying and be a serviceable and maybe even potent backup center to Dwight Howard? To start off, if the answers to those two questions are resounding “Yeses” this team is better than 41-41. Dwight Howard, as he showed at the World Championships in Japan, is developing into one of the conference’s best centers right behind Shaq. And Jameer Nelson is silencing all his doubters, becoming a consistent point guard in the league despite his lack of height. There are lots of questions, but also lots of optimism, surround this squad.

No. 4 – Charlotte Bobcats; 26-56 (14th in the East)
I know people want to say this team is on the rise, but I don’t see any rising happening this year. Their backcourt is extremely thin, and with Raymond Felton starting at shooting guard (definitely not his position), point guard Brevin Knight, almost 31, has no backup. Not good news for the ‘Cats. The only sanguinity surrounding this team involves the arrival of two highly-talked-about individuals: No. 3 draft pick Adam Morrison, and new GM Michael Jordan. Morrison should get plenty of court time, and if he and fellow youngster Felton and Sean May evolve their games, there could be reason for optimism come next fall.

No. 5 – Atlanta Hawks; 25-57 (15th in the East)
Well, at least they made one good off-season move (the first in a decade) when they picked up underrated point guard Speedy Claxton. Yep, that’s about the only good thing I can say about a team that is establishing a new mantra for bad NBA teams: lose with exciting players. Josh Smith can flat-out jump; Josh Childress’ ‘fro is tight; and their starting center’s name is Zaza. But unless the Hawks somehow steal AI from Philly or KG from Minnesota in a mid-season deal, they’ll be staying consistent. Consistently bad.

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