Monday, November 20, 2006

"Hail to the computers"

I was wrong.

I thought Michigan would fall in the BCS after its close 42-39 loss to Ohio State Saturday evening. Even though the Wolverines are clearly the second-best team in the land, I thought they'd fall at least one spot in the BCS. After all, one-third of the BCS is comprised of computer rankings that don't take into account what we all know: if Michigan played USC, it would probably win; if Michigan played Florida, it would probably win. You get the picture.

But, lo and behold, the computers might have saved the Wolverines. While Michigan is third in this week's coaches’ poll - which factors into the BCS formula, unlike the AP poll that has Michigan second - it remains second in the BCS, barely, over USC because the computers favor it. USC holds a slight edge over Michigan in the third component of the BCS, the Harris poll.

The top three play out like this: Ohio State 1.000; Michigan .9263; USC .9188. It isn't difficult to see that the Trojans are just a hair behind the Wolverines, and they will undoubtedly jump Michigan if they win against Notre Dame (fifth in the BCS) Saturday night.

But if the Trojans lose? Well, we could be set for a rematch come Jan. 8 of Saturday’s Thriller in Columbus.

There's no way Notre Dame will jump Michigan with a win over USC. I just can't see it happening. And Florida and Arkansas in the SEC are too far back. Nothing is for sure until things are announced on Dec. 3, but it looks like either USC (which also has to play UCLA on the road Dec. 2) or Michigan will be tangling with the Buckeyes.

I never thought I'd say this, but hail to the computers. They may not have brains; they may not have perspective; but, somehow, they know who the two best teams in football are.

At least for a week.

So, now, believe it or not, Michigan fans will be rooting for the Irish on Saturday. It won't be easy - they may even gag a few times - but, remember, it's for the good of the Wolverines.

A chance at a historic rematch.

Some fellow Michiganders are worried that if Michigan ends up in the championship game and wins, it won't be a legitimate championship. I can see where they're coming from, but at the same time, consider this: Whoever plays the Buckeyes will have one loss (sorry, Boise State). So if that team wins they will have an identical record to Ohio State.

And all of the other teams' losses aren't nearly as impressive as Michigan's. Not that anybody would ever call a loss "impressive."

Also, a rematch in the title game isn't foreign (although it has never happened during the 10-year BCS era). In 1996 Florida lost to Florida State in the regular season before coming back to wallop the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl and win the outright championship.

You can't take the Big Ten championship away from Ohio State. The Buckeyes earned their first outright title since 1984 and I'm sure they'll cherish it for years to come - regardless of the result of the Fiesta Bowl.

And you won't be able to take away the national title from whoever wins on Jan. 8. They will deserve it and they'll certainly cherish it for years to come.

Hopefully the coaches’ poll and Harris poll will follow the computers' lead, placing a deserving potential champion across from the Buckeyes.

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